Financial market research and analysis

Today OPEC+ begin a 2-day meeting to decide whether to begin producing an extra 2 million barrels per day of oil, or delay for another 3-6 months.

MARKETS
News
• Asia-Pacific markets are mixed this morning while S&P 500 futures are down half a per cent. India markets are closed for a holiday. Gold is trading near a 5-month low while Bitcoin is back to $18,500;
• Asian macro numbers: China’s official manufacturing PMI for November was at 52.1 (vs. expectations of 51.5). Japan’s retail sales rose 6.4% year-on-year in October;
• Joe Biden will likely require walking boot for several weeks after fracturing foot;
• Black Friday shopping in stores craters 52% during pandemic as e-commerce sales surge 22% to record $9 billion;
• Trump lost appeal of Pennsylvania election case. He said his election challenges probably won’t make it to the Supreme Court;
• Iran’s president accuses Israel of killing nuclear scientist, vows to respond ‘at the proper time’;
• OPEC alliance considers delay to its output hike, but faces a U.S. shale industry ‘itching to drill again’;
• Covid: Fauci says Christmas and New Year’s restrictions in the U.S will be necessary due to holiday coronavirus wave. San Francisco imposes new curbs after surge in Covid cases: new limits on businesses and social gatherings are imposed. Residents will be subject to a 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew until Dec. 21;
• UK secures 2 million more doses of Moderna's Covid vaccine and is set to approve Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine within days;
• Tesla will start producing its third generation electric Superchargers in China in 2021, in addition to vehicles it already manufactures there;
• S&P Global nears $44bn deal for IHS Markit.

What Else?
• Price of sell-side analyst meetings almost halved by pandemic: shift to online presentations means fund managers are paying less for investment research;
• Tesla’s S&P debut is set to put $100 Billion in motion: the addition to the S&P 500 of a $555 billion company prone to huge price swings is so daunting that S&P is considering adding
Tesla’s weight over two separate trading days;
• Deutsche Bank’s head of accounting probed over Wirecard: Germany’s audit watchdog investigates Andreas Loetscher for potential misconduct;
• Platinum is attracting renewed interest as a global push for cleaner energy and waning demand for gold promise to lift demand for the metal.

The Week Ahead
• Monday, Nov. 30:
Earnings: Sino Biopharmaceutical, Adient, Gazprom PJSC, Zoom Video Communications;
Macro: China NBS PMI, Spain, Italy and Germany inflation, India GDP, US Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, US pending home sales, South Korea GDP, Japan jobless rate.
• Tuesday, Dec. 1:
Earnings: Salesforce.com; NetApp, At Home;
Macro: Worldwide release of IHS Markit manufacturing PMI , Caixin/IHS Markit China manufacturing PMI, Germany unemployment rate, Italy GDP, Canada GDP, Euro area inflation, US ISM manufacturing PMI, 12th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministeria.
• Wednesday, Dec. 2:
Earnings: Snowflake; Synopsys; Splunk;
Macro: US Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for House of Rep, Australia GDP, Japan consumer confidence, Germany retail sales, BoE FPC meeting, Euro area jobless rate, US ADP job report, Fed Beige Book, Euro area ECB non-monetary policy meeting.
• Thursday, Dec. 3:
Earnings: Dollar General, Kroger, TD Ameritrade, DocuSign;
Macro: Worldwide release of IHS Markit services PMI, Caixin/IHS Markit China services PMI, Singapore and Hong Kong SAR PMI, Brazil GDP, US jobless claims.
• Friday, Dec. 4:
Macro: IHS Markit Sector PMI for Asia, Europe, Global, Australia retail sales, India monetary policy decision, IHS Markit Construction PMI for Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy and UK, US nonfarm payrolls, jobless rate, earnings, US exports, imports, trade balance, factory orders.

Quote of the day
“Progress is man's ability to complicate simplicity” – Thor Heyerdahl.

WRAP
Markets
Stocks rose on Friday as traders wrapped up a strong week amid decreasing political uncertainty and positive vaccine news. The S&P 500 gained 0.2%, notching a record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9% and also closed at an all-time high. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.4% Friday with most sectors and major bourses finishing in the black. Oil prices were mixed on Friday but recorded a fourth straight week of gains ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this week. Gold dropped below $1,800 on optimism for economic recovery.
Macro
Economic numbers were mixed last week. In the U.S, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in five weeks. The latest monthly numbers on U.S. consumer confidence fell to 96.1 in November—the lowest level since August. On the other hand, Core (excluding defense and aircraft) capital goods orders and U.S New Home Sales both surprised on the upside. In Europe, the preliminary IHS Markit Composite PMI fell to a 6-month low.