The general picture across the FX markets is showing that the dollar is losing strength, or perhaps having a pause, in the last couple of days. A softer US dollar index affects several major pairs: the Euro and the Aussie are recovering against the dollar, the British pound is consolidating gains. The Yen is testing the 100 mark.
is recovering after having bounced off the 1.1132 low yesterday. The euro could take advantage of the temporary USD weakness and extend gains to 1.1200, and even to the 1.1224 (50% Fibonacci retracement on March to May rise). Above this level, the next resistance is seen at 1.1316 (61.8% Fibo retracement).
On the downside, the 1.1132 (38.2% Fibo retracement) should lend some support. Below this level, a further slide could take us all the way down to the 200-day moving average, 1.1071. This is a key mid-term level for the EURUSD, if broken, might cause a bearish inversion with next support seen at 1.1019 (23.6% Fibo retrace).
is preparing to test the resistance at110.25 (70.7% Finonacci retracement on January to April decline). If this level is surpassed, the pair might rise to the next critical level of 111.69 (61.8% Fibo retracement & 100-day moving average), then to the mid-term resistance 113.59 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
On the other hand, if the support at 109.33 (76.4% Fibo retrace and 50dma) is broken on the downside, the recovery might be over and the USDJPY could re-plunge to 107.37 (88.60% Fibo retracement), before the 105.54 (May 2nd low).
After breaking the critical 200-day moving average level, the GBPUSD
is consolidating gains today, although the disappointing data on UK's business investment for the 1st quarter shortly dented the appetite in the pound. Investments in the UK have contracted for the 2nd quarter in a row (-0.5% against expected +3.2%), and this seems to be related to the uncertainty vis-à-vis the Brexit vote.
The 1.4662 level (200-day moving average and 88.6% Fibo retracement on February to May rise) should lend some support to any pullback before a further appreciation toward the 1.4768, May 2nd high. Above this level, Cable could gather further momentum to test the 1.50 level. Nevertheless, the pending Brexit risks could interfere with further appreciation for the moment.
If the 1.4662 support doesn’t hold, we might see a new slump below the 1.4600 mark, down to the 1.4548 (76.4% Fibo retrace), and possibly down to 1.4495 (70.7% Fibo retrace).
The Australian dollar is recovering against the US dollar. The AUDUSD
has stepped above the 0.7200 critical support level (38.2% major Fibonacci retracement on January to April rally). Although the MACD indicator has turned positive, the oversold conditions could limit the upside pre-0.7281 (200-day moving average), before a fresh attempt to the 0.7300 mark and to 0.7326 (50% Fibonacci retracement). If the 0.7200 mark is broken, we might expect a slide toward the 0.7144 (May 24th low). This level could provide a temporary support before a further slump to 0.7058 (23.6% Fibo retrace). Gold
has turned positive after six consecutive day of losses. The soft US dollar could encourage a rise towards the 1242 (76.4% Fibo retrace) before the 1250 level, 50-day moving average. On the downside, the 1227, 100-day moving average should give support. If this level is broken, the gold's price might plunge to 1204 (61.8% Fibo retrace) before the 1200 mark.
Oil rallies on disappointing inventories data coming from the US. After having reached the $49.55 earlier in the session, the WTI
is moving slightly lower. Breaching the strong $50 resistance could trigger further gains. The next mid-term resistance is eyed at $60.
A failure to stay above the $49.00 support might push the WTI lower to $47.24 (May 19th low), before $46.32 (May 12th low).