Financial market research and analysis

The EURUSD tanked to 1.1144 on the back of a broad based USD rally following the solid US inflation report on Friday. The recovery is underway as the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves remain in charge of the market before the FOMC meeting due on Wednesday. Yet short-term trend and momentum indicators hint at the possibility of a further sell-off to 1.1140/1.1120 before 1.1085. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.1213 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 8th to Sep 19th decline) and 1.1235 (major 38.2% and 200-hour moving average).

The USDJPY remains rangebound on the run up to Wednesday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) and FOMC meetings. Intra-day resistances are unchanged at 102.45 (Sep 16th peak), 102.75 (50% retracement on Sep 2nd to Sep 7th pullback), 103.12 (major 61.8%), 103.57 (minor 76.4% and ascending channel top). Intra-day supports are presumed at 101.93 (minor 23.6%), 101.42 (Sep 13th low) and 101.20 (Sep 7th low).

The GBPUSD fell to a ten week-low on the back of a broadly stronger US dollar. The USD leg is expected to define the short-term direction throughout this week. The critical resistance is eyed at 1.3165 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 6th to Sep 16th decline). Below this level, the negative bias should increase pressure on the 1.30 support for a further sell-off toward 1.2950 and 1.2865 (mid-Aug lows).

AUDUSD is preparing to test 0.7554 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 8th to Sep 13th decline & 200-hour moving average), if surpassed, should push the AUDUSD in the short-term bullish trend for a further attempt to 0.7622 (major 61.8% retrace). The critical support is seen at 0.7440/0.7420.

Gold is contingent on the US dollar appetite on the run up to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The $1305 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support, while the upside is expected to remain capped at $ 1333 (50-day moving average) and $1348, two-week downtrend channel top.

The WTI pared losses as the OPEC said it may call for an extraordinary meeting if informal talks at the September meeting hint at an output freeze. Clashes in Libya also support the prices on the upside. A minor support is seen at $43.50/43.00, for a potential recovery toward $45.00 and $46.05.