Financial Market Research and Analysis

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UK inflation beats, GBP slides
EURUSD is moving on the sidelines right above the 1.1000 mark. The next resistance is the critical 1.1107 (200-day moving average), if surpassed, could pave the way for a further rise towards 1.1175 (50-day moving average), then to 1.1198/1.1200 (major Fibonacci retracement) and 1.1254 (100-day moving average).
The first support is seen at 1.1037 (July 18th low), if this is cleared, the pair could slide to 1.1000 (July 8th low), then to 1.0941 (major Fibonacci retracement).

Japanese equities climbed on expectation of a further monetary and fiscal stimuli. The USDJPY broke above the 50-day moving average. We expect the pair to extend gains up to the 107.58 (100-day moving average and Fibonacci retracement). Above this level, the USDJPY could make an attempt to the 110.00 mark. The first support is seen at 105.50 (50-day moving average), if cleared, could encourage a slide to 104.25 (Fibonacci retracement).

Cable has been under pressure this morning despite a strong inflation report. The sterling tanked 70 pips, although the CPI y/y grew at the pace of 0.5% (against 0.4% expected). The GBPUSD is trading at about the 1.3200 mark and the next resistance is seen at 1.3300/1.3314 (July 18th high). If surpassed, the pair could extend gains to 1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement), then to 1.3479 (July 15th high).
The first support is seen at the 1.3200 mark, then at 1.3182 (July 18th low). If these levels are broken, the pair could slump to 1.3104 (July 14th low), then to 1.3000 before the 1.2849 (July 11th low). GBP821 million worth of options with 1.3200 strike will expire today.

The Australian dollar dropped against the major peers as traders started to price in a higher probability of an interest rate cut by the RBA in August. Aussie extended losses from a two-month high reached on Friday, as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes relative to July meeting showed that policymakers kept the door open for more stimulus and reiterated that a higher currency could complicate adjustments in the economy.
AUDUSD is moving right below the 0.7500 mark, and the next support is seen at 0.7475 (100-day moving average). If broken, we could see a slump to 0.7445 (major Fibonacci retracement), then to 0.7409 (50-day moving average) before the critical 0.7337 (200-day moving average).
On the upside, the first resistance is seen at 0.7593 (Fibonacci retracement), if surpassed, we could see a further rise to 0.7675 (July 15th high), then to 0.7700/0.7717.

Gold remains in a bullish trend. The next resistance is $1346 (July 14th high), if surpassed, could encourage a further rise to $1374 (July 11th high). A break below the $1319 support (July 14th low), could bring the precious metal to test the $1300 mark, before $1296 (Fibonacci retracement).

Concerns about the global glut weigh on oil prices. After moving below the 50$ a barrel, WTI reached $45/barrel, which has provided a solid support in the last couple of weeks. Below this level, the price could test $44.40 support (July 11th low), if cleared, we could see a further slide towards 40$ a barrel.
The first resistance is seen at $45.48 (50- hour moving average), if surpassed, could open the way for a rise to the critical $45.70 (200-hour moving average). Above this level, we could have a bullish reversal attempt, with next resistance eyed at $46.00/46.28 (July 15th high).

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