Financial Market Research and Analysis

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Oil rallies on OPEC deal
The upside potential in the EURUSD has not been fully exhausted. The 1.1184 (major 61.8% retracement on Sep 21th to Sep 26th rise) is presently providing support for a further push towards 1.1280/1.1300 area. Clearing below 1.1182 should pave the way toward 1.1120, mid-term support.

The USDJPY is picking up momentum on the upside. Having cleared the 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages, the pair is preparing to grab the 102.15 handle (minor 76.4% retracement on Sep 21st to Sep 27th decline), before 102.78 (Sep 21st high). On the downside, the 101.44 (major 50%) and 101.00 (200-hour moving average) should lend support to the developing positive trend.

The golden cross (50-hour moving average crossing above 200-hour moving average) is expected to give support to the current recovery the GBPUSD. To step in the bullish trend, the critical 1.3116 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 6th to Sep 23th decline) should be cleared. Intra-day support is eyed at 1.3000 (50, 200-hour moving average).

After having extended gains to a three-week high, the AUDUSD has aggressively given back gains into the European open. The key short-term support is eyed at 0.7612 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 15th to Sep 29th rise). Holding support at this level, we could expect the pair to grab more territory towards 0.7730 (Sep 8th resistance). Below 0.7612, the correction should extend to 0.7584 (major 50%).

Gold treads water below its 50-day moving average ($1331). The $1312 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support. Reconquering the 50-day moving average, we could expect a further attempt to $1343 (3-month descending channel top).

The price of barrel of WTI rallied to $47.44 amid news that OPEC would cut production to support the recovery in the oil market. The deal should add $5 to $10 to the price of a barrel by the end of the year. We adjust our year-end target to $55/$58 per barrel. In the short-run, $46.40 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 20th to Sep 28th rise) should lend support. Above $45.75 (major 38.2%), the trend will be positive for a recovery toward $50.

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