Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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NFPs in focus
The European Central Bank (ECB) left the monetary policy unchanged as expected (interest rate at 0.00%, 80 billion euro purchases in assets per month), hence the EURUSD retraced slightly below the 1.1200 mark. The first support is provided by the ascending trend-line (base Dec 3rd low– March 1st low – May 29th low), if that is broken, we COULD see a slump to 1.1070 (50% Fibonacci retracement on December to May rise). Below this level, we COULD expect a fall to 1.0940 (61.8% major Fibonacci retrace).
First resistance is seen at 1.1200 (38.2% major Fibonacci retrace), if surpassed, could encourage a further rise towards 1.1226 (100-dma), and 1.1298 (50-dma).

In japan, the data on average cash earnings y/y was far below the expectation, 0.3% versus 0.9% expected and 1.5% previously. This caused the USDJPY to fall below the 109.00 mark, right now negative for the 4th session in a row. The next support is seen at 107.38 (Fibonacci retracement on January to May fall). While a recovery is still possible, surpassing the 109.35 could encourage a recovery to the 110.00 mark before the 111.00 (100-dma).

The GBPUSD bounced on 1.4411 (38.2% major Fibonacci retracement on February to May rise), and is moving slightly to the upside. Resistance is seen at 1.4578 (23.6% Fib retrace), while below the 1.4330 neck-line, the double top pattern COULD cause further downside toward the 1.4000 mark.

In Australia, the traders are in wait-and-see approach ahead of the NFP data in the US. The AUDUSD is trading rangebound within 0.7208 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement on January to April rise) and 0.7280 (200-dma).

Gold consolidates above the critical support at 1205 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement on December to May rise), the ECB decisions didn’t have a significant impact on the price, while today’s NFP COULD provoke volatility. Breaking below the 1205-support, the price could fall to 1175 (50% Fibonacci retracement). On the upside, a cheaper dollar could encourage a fresh upside toward the 1243 (76.4% Fibo retrace).

WTI is trading above the 49.00$ a barrel. The first support is seen at 47.73 (June 1st low), while the first resistance is eyed at 50.11 (May 26th high). Yesterday, the OPEC failed to agree on output target during the Vienna meeting, The oil fell below the 48.00 mark, before appreciating on less then expected contraction in the US inventories (-1.4M against forecast -2.7M).

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