Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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JPY strengthens, oil plunges
The euro strengthens against the US dollar. EURUSD traded above the 1.1000 mark with next resistance seen at 1.1070 (Fibonacci retracement), if surpassed, could encourage a further recovery toward the critical 1.1120 (200-day moving average).
The support is seen at 1.0951 (July 25th low) / 1.0941 (Fibonacci retracement), if cleared, could accelerate the sell-off toward 1.0820 (March 10th low), then to 1.0781 (Fibonacci retracement).

The USDJPY tanked below the critical 38.2% retracement on July rise, 104.60, bringing the pair into the bearish consolidation zone before this week's BoJ meeting. The bearish momentum could bring the possibility of a fresh attempt towards 100.00, before 98.99 (June 24th low).
The first resistance is eyed at 105.00/105.20 (50-day moving average), if surpassed, could push the pair back to 107.15 (100-day moving average).

Cable is trading below the 1.3100 mark with next support presumed at 1.3064 (July 20th low). Below this level, GBPUSD could break the 1.3000 mark, and slide towards 1.2849 (July 11th low). The first resistance is eyed at 1.3153 (July 24th high), if surpassed, could encourage a further recovery to 1.3200/1.3289 (July 22nd high). Above this level, the pair extend gains to 1.3300 mark, before 1.3400/1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement).

AUDUSD gained 0.70% in Sydney, and is heading towards offers at 0.7593/0.7600 (Fibonacci retracement). More resistance is eyed at 0.7700 and 0. 7834 (April 21st top level) as sellers will soon start creeping in on expectations that the RBA could cut interest rates at August 2nd policy meeting. The first support is eyed at 0.7470 (100-day moving average), if cleared, could pull the pair back to 0.7445 (Fibonacci retracement &50-day moving average) and towards the critical 0.7345 (200-day moving average).

Gold is trading rangebound between $1310 and $1330. A break below the $1310/1305 (June 28th low) could encourage a further sell-off to the major Fibonacci retracement level, $1297. While a break above $1330 could see resistance at $1346 (July 14th high) before $1374 (July 11th high).

According to a Reuters report based on ICE Europe and CME data, hedge funds and money managers reversed their strategy on oil, and the number of short position was multiplied by three in July compared to May. Also, according to the US CFTC, hedge funds increased their short position on WTI for five weeks out of seven.
After braking below the $43 level, WTI is trying to regain some field. If bids are strong enough to push the price above $43.75 (50-hour moving average), we could expect a further recovery towards $44.00 mark and the $44.59 (100-dayt moving average). A break below $42.57 (intraday low) could however pave the way for a further slump towards $40.

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