Financial market research and analysis

As expected, the ECB meeting generated tremendous volatility. EURUSD tanked two figures following the decision and then rallied by significant four figures on the upside to 1.1217 (March 10th High). The critical level 1.1045 (200-dma) have been wiped out, but the EURUSD is currently retracing gains. EURUSD is already below 1.1100 in European morning session. The key short-term support is eyed at 1.1067 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Draghi rally). Above this level, the EURUSD scould develop the bullish trend toward the 1.1376 (Feb 11th high). A slide below 1.1067 could signal a short-term bearish reversal and encourage a downside correction toward the 1.1000 mark before the 1.0914 (100-dma) and then to 1.0826 (Mar 2nd low). From a medium term point of view, a break below this level could pave the way to 1.0800/10 (February lows) then all the way down to the 1.0725 (minor 74.6% before 1.0524 (Dec low).

USDJPY traded ranged between 112.76/113.88 in Tokyo. Trend and momentum indicators are marginally positive, suggesting a potentially steady advance toward the critical 115.08 resistance (major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Intermediary resistance is seen at 114.40 (pivot). Short-term support is seen at 113.50 (minor 23.6% retrace on Feb decline) before 112.20/111.90 area. A break below could fully expose the February dip of 110.99 (Feb dip).

The UK’s trade deficit widened to £3459 million in January. The pound smirked as data showed a sharper improvement in the non-EU terms, at a period when Brexit risks stand ready to shadow any sign of enthusiasm in the pound. GBPUSD is in a better shape to fight back the 1.43/1.4320 offers before the closing bell. On the downside,, the 1.4252 (Fib 50% level on Feb-Mar decline) should lend some support before the major 38.2% retrace, 1.4154.

AUDUSD bulls and bears continue fighting at 75 cents level. The RSI (69%) is edging the overbought territories, which could trigger a short-term downside correction. Support is eyed at 0.7430 (minor 23.6% retrace on Mar 1 – 9 rise) before 0.7370 (major 38.2%). Above this level, the technical bias is to remain positive for a further advance to 0.7655 (Fib 61.8% retrace on May-Jan decline).

Gold rallied to $1284 for the first time since January 2015. Gold is now consolidating gains in 1255/75 area. The bullish trend started in Jan 2016 seems strong and we might expect further upside. First level of resistance 1285 (March 11rd high) before the 1300 mark and even 1307 (Jan 22nd 2015 High). Level of support at 1225 (minor 23.6% on Dec-Mar rise) before 1200 mark.

After a highly volatile session, the WTI rallied to a fresh three-month high of $3896. The $40 mark is just around the corner. Surpassing $40, we could expect the extension of gains toward the 200-day moving average ($43.30). Support is seen at $36.77 (100-dma) before $35.90 (minor 23.6% retrace on Feb-Mar rally). The ley short-term support is eyed at$34 (major 38.2%) which should distinguish a further bullish development for a sustainable recovery above $40 and a correction down to the 50-dma (32.40) before $30.