Financial Market Research and Analysis

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Brittle USD gains pre-NFP
The EURUSD retreated below 1.1100 mark in Asia on the back of a broad based US dollar recovery. The US jobs data could trigger a minor volatility across the USD-crosses before the weekly closing bell; nevertheless, the election euphoria is expected keep the USD gains limited. The 1.1060 should continue lending support to the EURUSD, for a fresh push to the 100-day moving average (1.1130) before 1.1200 (200-day moving average). More support is seen at 1.1020 (major 38.2% retrace) and 1.0988 (Fib 50% level).

The USDJPY traded in the tight range of 102.83-103.28 in Tokyo. The bias remains bearish below 103.44 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 28th rise), suggesting the possibility of a renewed attempt to 102.55 (Nov 3rd low), before 102.16 (major 61.8% retrace) / 102.00. Surpassing 103.44 could allow a limited upside attempt, generating interesting top selling opportunities pre-104.28 (200-hour moving average), 105.00 (optionality) and 105.40 (200-day moving average).

The GBPUSD rose steeply to 1.2492 after the UK’s high court gave the parliament the constitutional power to trigger Brexit. Traders could give a chance to Cable for a further bullish development. The short-term support is eyed at 1.2396 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 3rd rally) and 1.2336 (major 38.2% retrace) . Option offers are mixed pre-1.2500. Clearing 1.2500 should pave the way for 1.2622 (pre-Oct 7th flash crash high).

Failure to clear 0.7700 offers sent the AUDUSD down to 0.7664 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 28th to Nov 4th rise) in Sydney. The stronger US dollar may suggest a deeper downside correction toward 0.7643 (major 38.2% retrace) and 0.7636 (200-hour moving average). The risk-off environment should keep the carry appetite limited before the US election. Solid offers are eyed at 0.7700, before 0.7710/0.7730 mid-term resistance.

Gold retreated below $1300 as the US dollar gained broadly. The rising risk-off sentiment before the US presidential election should bring in new buyers at 1290/1280 (100-hour moving average / major 200-day moving average) for a potential rise toward the $1317 (100-day moving average) on the run up to the next week's election.

The WTI consolidates losses a touch above the $45/barrel. The bias remains comfortably negative for a further fall to $44.10 (200-day moving average) before $43 (Sep 19th dip). Offers are eyed at $46.39 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Nov 3rd fall) and $47.50 (major 38.2% retrace).