: formation of double bottom at 1.0826 on the hourly chart. A break below 1.0826 could pave the way for a further slide to 1.0800/10 (Feb lows) then all the way down to the 1.0725 (minor 74.6% before 1.0524 (Dec low). The conviction for a possible depreciation toward 1.0524 (Dec low) increases as the count down to the ECB meeting started. Asian traders remained sellers pre-1.09 and more resistance is eyed at 1.0925/50 area (50dma / Fib 50% retrace on Dec-Feb rise). The key mid-term resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise), below which the EURUSD is considered in the bearish trend. Only surpassing the 1.1051, a recovery back to 1.1175 (minor 23.6%) could be considered. The key resistance is 1.1376 (Feb 2nd).USDJPY
consolidated above the 113.50, minor 23.6% retrace on Feb decline. The strengthening positive trend suggests a further extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 will signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). Support is seen at 112.90 (200hma) before 112.00, week’s low. The key support stands at 110.99 (Feb dip).GBPUSD
is recovering. Intermediate resistance is eyed at 1.4115 before the critical short-term level of 1.4154 (major 38.2%) which should keep the bias on the downside for extension of losses to fresh 7-yr low levels (1.3836). Only surpassing 1.4154 could give a relief to the market. Key resistance is eyed at 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement).AUDUSD
gained along with the Australian stock index as the trade deficit improved better-than-expected in January. The AUDUSD broke the 200dma (0.7254) on the upside and is set to challenge critical mid-term resistances at 0.7340/0.7385 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high). The 200-dma (0.7254) is expected to lend support before 0.7152/0.7109 area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide).Gold
rebounded from $1225 yesterday and remains bid below the 200-hma ($1229). The improvement in the risk appetite could keep the $1250/65 resistance intact. Support is eyed at $1200/1230 (200-hma). Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.
Oil extended gains to a 8-week highs as data showed the US oil production declined for the 6th week in a row. WTI
is testing $35.00/35.00 resistance. Support is seen at $33.55 (March 3rd low), then at the 50dma ($32.30). If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $31.15 (21-dma) before a re-test of the $30 mark (five-month downtrend channel top).