Financial Market Research and Analysis

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AUDUSD above the 200-day MA
EURUSD: formation of double bottom at 1.0826 on the hourly chart. A break below 1.0826 could pave the way for a further slide to 1.0800/10 (Feb lows) then all the way down to the 1.0725 (minor 74.6% before 1.0524 (Dec low). The conviction for a possible depreciation toward 1.0524 (Dec low) increases as the count down to the ECB meeting started. Asian traders remained sellers pre-1.09 and more resistance is eyed at 1.0925/50 area (50dma / Fib 50% retrace on Dec-Feb rise). The key mid-term resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise), below which the EURUSD is considered in the bearish trend. Only surpassing the 1.1051, a recovery back to 1.1175 (minor 23.6%) could be considered. The key resistance is 1.1376 (Feb 2nd).

USDJPY consolidated above the 113.50, minor 23.6% retrace on Feb decline. The strengthening positive trend suggests a further extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 will signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). Support is seen at 112.90 (200hma) before 112.00, week’s low. The key support stands at 110.99 (Feb dip).

GBPUSD is recovering. Intermediate resistance is eyed at 1.4115 before the critical short-term level of 1.4154 (major 38.2%) which should keep the bias on the downside for extension of losses to fresh 7-yr low levels (1.3836). Only surpassing 1.4154 could give a relief to the market. Key resistance is eyed at 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement).

AUDUSD gained along with the Australian stock index as the trade deficit improved better-than-expected in January. The AUDUSD broke the 200dma (0.7254) on the upside and is set to challenge critical mid-term resistances at 0.7340/0.7385 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high). The 200-dma (0.7254) is expected to lend support before 0.7152/0.7109 area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide).

Gold rebounded from $1225 yesterday and remains bid below the 200-hma ($1229). The improvement in the risk appetite could keep the $1250/65 resistance intact. Support is eyed at $1200/1230 (200-hma). Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.

Oil extended gains to a 8-week highs as data showed the US oil production declined for the 6th week in a row. WTI is testing $35.00/35.00 resistance. Support is seen at $33.55 (March 3rd low), then at the 50dma ($32.30). If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $31.15 (21-dma) before a re-test of the $30 mark (five-month downtrend channel top).

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