Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD slid below 1.09 mark yesterday and consolidated losses in the tight range of 1.0867/1.0894 in the Asian session. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably negative as the pair has given two thirds of Dec-Feb gains. Offers are presumed at 1.0975/50 (50dma / Fib 50% retrace on Dec-Feb rise). The key resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise), below which the EURUSD is considered in a bearish trend. It is just a matter of time before a fall to 1.0850/10 (Fib 61.8% / Feb low). Clearing support at 1.0815/10 could pave the way toward the 1.0725 level (minor 76.4%) before 1.0524 (Dec low). Only surpassing the 1.1051, could a recovery back to 1.1175 (minor 23.6%) be considered. The key resistance is 1.1376 (Feb 2nd).

USDJPY gained on hopes for more fiscal stimulus as company profits fell and capital investment slowed in 4Q. The MACD is in a bullish zone, suggesting there may be consolidation and even some recovery underway. Vanilla calls trail above the 113.00 mark for today’s expiry and could give a lift to the pair. The 114.00 double top needs to be cleared for an extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 will signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). The key support stands at 110.99 (Feb dip).

GBPUSD pushed above the 50-100hma (1.3897/1.3923) and is gaining momentum to challenge the 1.40 resistance. The 1.4037, minor 23.6% on Feb decline, is expected to cap any upside attempt past 1.40 (short-term pivot). Intermediate resistance is eyed at 1.4115 before the critical short-term level of 1.4158 (major 38.2%) which should keep the bias on the downside for extension of losses to fresh 7-yr low levels. Only surpassing 1.4158 could give a relief to sterling downside. Key resistance is eyed at 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement).

As expected, the RBA kept its cash rate target unchanged at 2%. Commodity prices slumped by -21.6% over the year to February so the current account deficit widened more-than-expected to AU$ 21.1bn in Q4.. AUDUSD bounced higher after hitting 0.7109. The MACD turned neutral from positive as the 0.7160/0.7100 support weakened (area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide). Below 0.7100, we could expected a further slide to 0.7000/0.6990. On the upside, thee 200-dma (0.7258) is an important barrier before the 0.7340/85 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high).

Gold advanced to $1248 in Asia. The insecure investors stay on their holdings in precious metal, yet failure to clear resistance at $1250/65 could lead to a setback toward the $1200/1212 (minor 23.6% on Dec-Feb rise). Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.

WTI firmed to $34.32, just a stone’s throw below the $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance zone. Support is seen at $33.10 (pivot), then at the 50ma ($32.30). If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $30.75 (21-dma) before a re-test of the $30 mark (five-month downtrend channel top).