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04 Jul 2016
By Mauro Fellner
Weak USD pushes Gold to $1350
Asian stock markets closed slightly positive (Nikkei +0.60% Hang Seng +1.39%), and the Yen is slowly depreciating against the US dollar on the assumption that the Bank of Japan will soon help the market via new easing measures. USDJPY finds buyers at 102.30 while pushing toward the 103.00/103.38 resistance level (June 30th high). If this level is broken the pair could rise to 104.35 (Fibonacci retracement). If the 102.30 support is cleared, the pair could drop to 102.00 and even lower to test the 101.40 level (June 26th low).
UK equities extended gains with the FTSE rising 7.2% last week, the biggest jump since 2011. Brexit talks are lowering the chances for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates any time soon. The market is now pricing in that a rate hike is unlikely before 2018. GBPUSD found new buyers at 1.3250 and is now rising to test the 1.3300 mark before the next resistance at 1.34/1.3495 (June 29th high). A drop below the 1.3250 support could provoke a new sell-off with next support 1.3200 mark before the 1.3120 (June 26th low).
The very close result of the Australian election, has left the nation in limbo. The political deadlock puts the country’s AAA rating at risk and puts pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates at the next meeting. Malcolm Turnbull is confident in forming a new government, and the full result of the election won't be decided until at least Tuesday, which is when vote-counting resumes. The Aussie first tanked 0.4% on the back of political uncertainties then, in soft trading hours, AUDUSD rose above the 0.7500 mark with the next resistance 0.7595/0.7600 (Fibonacci retracement). A first support is provided by the 100-day moving average at 0.7468. If cleared, the pair could drop to 0.7449 (Fibonacci retracement), and even lower to the 0.7400 mark.
The US dollar weakening against the major G10 currencies is pushing Gold higher, which is now about to test the 1350 mark before the resistance 1360 (June 26th high). If this level is surpassed the precious metal could rally to the 1400 mark.
The energy minister of Saudi Arabia and the secretary general of OPEC confirm that oil market prices are stabilising. Today WTI is right above 49.00$/barrel, with the next resistance level at 49.40 (Fibonacci retracement) which if surpassed could cause prices to reach 50$ a barrel mark, and even higher 50.51$ a barrel (June 22nd high). A drop below 49$ a barrel could call for new a new sell-off, with next support 48.70 (Fibonacci retracement) then the 48.15/58 mark.
The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please note that 71% of our retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
