Financial market research and analysis

US traders are pricing in a zero per-cent chance of an interest rate increase from the Fed next week, while the chances of an increase by the end of the year is 58% compared to a 74% at the beginning of last week. In the meantime, the ECB started the purchases of corporate bonds, and surprisingly among these, there were some ‘junk’ bonds (according to some rating agencies studies). The EURUSD slid to 1.1370, right above the support 1.1357 (Fibonacci retracement), which if broken could cause a slump to test 1.1300 (50-days-moving-average). The first resistance is at 1.1415 (intraday high), if this is surpassed we can expect a rise to1.1490 (Fibonacci retracement).
 
Japanese core machinery orders missed expectations with a drop of 11.0%m/m against -3.2% expected. The yen started appreciating against the US dollar again, but in the last few sessions, the USDJPY has moved within the 106.40 / 107.37 range. A break out of this range should give a clearer direction in the short-term.
 
The US dollar is recovering, the dollar index rose to 93.80, and at the same time investors seems willing to close some of their long positions on British pound, ahead of the Brexit vote which is due in two weeks. The GBPUSD slumped to 1.4458, below the 50-days-moving-average at 1.4465. A further downside could encourage to test the critical 1.4411 (Fibonacci retracement), while surpassing the resistance, we could expect a surge to 1.4600/1.4612 (200-days-moving-average).
 
Improved risk sentiment and firmer commodity prices encouraged the AUDUSD to a one-month-high above the 0.7500 mark. Presently, we see a retracement to 0.7436 with next support eyed at 0.7423 (100-days-moving-average). First resistance is 0.7446 (Fibonacci retracement) then, if this is surpassed, we expect a surge to the solid 0.7593/0.7600 mark.
 
Gold extended gains to 1260$/oz on softer US dollar. The first support is eyed at 1251 (50-days-moving-average), as the first resistance is seen at 1275 (Fibonacci retracement).
 
Oil and metals are bid on softer USD and the rising expectations that the Fed will not hike interest rates anytime sooner than September. Also, the US inventories showed a contraction by 3.2M barrels last week. After 3 days of rally, today WTI retreat below 51.00, probably to liquidate gains after the record of new 2016 high at 51.64.