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Financial market research and analysis
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The Euro is consolidating gains above the 1.1100 mark. Surpassing the 1.1155 (August 4th high), the pair could rise to the 1.1200/1.1220 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement on July 25 – Aug 2 rise & 100-day moving average), then to 1.1358 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement). Breaking below the 1.1130 support (200 day moving average) could cause a further slide to 1.1092 (50% Fibonacci retracement), then to 1.0951 (July 25th low).
USDJPY trades above the 101.00 mark, nearing the three-week low at 100.68. A rise above 101.66 (August 4th high) could encourage further gains to 102.82 (August 2nd high). Above this level, we could even think of a potential mid-term recovery, with next resistance eyed at 103.99/104.27 area (50-day moving average and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement on January to June decline). A break below the 101.66 support could trigger a fresh sell-off to 100.00/99.98 (July 8th low) before to 99.00/98.99 (June 24th low).
GBPUSD found support at 1.3102/1.3100 (August 4th low) following the BoE’s decision to loosen the monetary policy. A short-term correction is underway, but the upside is seen limited at1.3210, the major 38.2% retracement on post-BoE decline. Above, the pair could find new positive momentum for a fresh rise to the critical 1.3400-1.3550 area. A break below the 1.3100 support could trigger a further sell-off towards 1.3000, then to 1.2876 (July 7th low).
The Aussie rallied to a three-week high 0.7597/0.7600 (July 15th high), after the Reserve Bank of Australia provided no signal for lower interest-rate in its quarterly statement on Friday. RBA also maintained its growth and inflation forecasts little changed. As of today, the possibility of another rate cut this year is given less than 50 percent chance. The recovery in iron ore prices has also been a good reason to push the RBA-doves aside.
Gold traded higher towards the 1376 (July 11th high) on a broadly softer US dollar before the US jobs report. Above 1374, the gold could accumulate further momentum toward the $1400 level.
Oil prices rose nearly 3% in the previous session, as traders covered their short positions on the back of a disappointing crude inventories data. WTI bottomed at $39.23 earlier in the week yet managed to recover above the $40 level. Intra-day trend remains positive with a possibility of further recovery to $42.00, before $43.40. The first support is seen at $41.40. A break below this level could revive the downside pressures toward the $40.
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