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18 Aug 2016
By Mauro Fellner
UK Retail sales boosts Cable
The dovish Fed didn't help the recovery in the USDJPY, which is trading right above the 100 level. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably bearish and the next support is seen at 99.53 (August 16th low), if broken could give way to 98.99 (June 24th low). The upside is expected to remain limited. The first resistance is eyed at 101.45 (August 15th high). Above 101.45, we could consider a recovery towards 103.00 (50-day moving average).
Cable jumped above 1.3150 on the better than expected UK retail sales (actual 1.4% m/m against 0.1% expected). The next resistance is presumed at 1.3250 (50-day moving average), if surpassed, could encourage a further recovery to 1.3348 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement on June 24th to July 12th fall). The 1.3000 level is expected to act as a short-term support. Below this level, the pair could step back into the bearish trend and extend losses to 1.2865 (August 15th low).
Jobs report in Australia showed an improvement in the unemployment rate (actual 5.7% against 5.8% expected). Combined with a broadly softer US dollar, the AUDUSD rose above 0.7700 mark. Surpassing the 0.7755 (August 10th high), the pair is likely to extend gains towards 0.7800, then to 0.7834 (April 21st high). First support is seen at 0.7608 (August 17th low). Below this level, the Aussie could drop to 0.7553 (50-day moving average).
Gold rose for a fourth session in a row, now trading at $1349 with next resistance at 1358 (August 16th high). Surpassing this level, the precious metal could accumulate gains towards $1374 (July 11th high), then towards $1400. The bullish trend appears well underpinned, in particular after the Federal reserve minutes sounded more dovish than expected. First support is eyed at $1329 (50-day moving average). Clearing this level could pressure the gold down to 1310 (July 21st low), then to $1300 mark.
Oil prices are rising on Thursday; the WTI is testing the $47 mark. The new bullish trend started at the beginning of August is mostly caused by rumours about a potential OPEC agreement to cut the supply in order to help stabilizing the oil prices. Compared to the Doha meeting in April, which brought nothing on the table, traders are more confident that the OPEC members would be keen to agree. WTI is gaining traction for a rise above $47.00, and surpassing $47.66 (July 12th high) should bring the $50 a barrel on the table. The first support is seen at $46.00/45.80 area. Below this level, we could expect a setback towards $44.43 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement on July to August decline).
The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please note that 71% of our retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
