Financial market research and analysis

The softer USD benefits to the lira, the rand and the real. The prospect of a smoother Fed tightening is encouraging for carry traders who seek to generate return on profitable rate differential if depreciation risks are reasonable. Presently, the one-month realised volatility in USDTRY eased to the reasonable level of 8.50%; the wobbliness in USDBRL eased to a two-month low of 15%. The one-monthvolatility in USDZAR has just made it below 20%, which is still relatively high, yet the rand is visibly more stable after the political tensions pushed the volatility up to 30% at the beginning of the year.

The softer G10 spectrum is supportive of the EM countries, which are highly USD and UST sensitive due to their high current account deficit and considerable level of foreign debt. Yet one characteristic could set the lira on a positive divergent path versus the real and the rand: Turley’s exposure to the commodity and energy prices. While the Brazilian and the South African wallets continue taking the hit from declining oil and commodity prices, Turkey, as net energy importer, is benefiting from the global rout in raw material and energy prices.

Calls for lower TRY, BRL rates unreasonable, despite softer Fed

This being said, Brazil’s trade balance improved to $923mn in January as imports fell more drastically then export revenues. As Brazil is aiming to provide credit mostly aiming small businesses, Fitch warned that the credit stimulus may not boost growth. The new credit will not weigh on tax payers according to Brazilian lawmakers, as the cash is already in the system, however it will likely delay the consolidation in fiscal program that investors are craving for. While the delay in fiscal consolidation is not good news yet understandable per se, rising call for a lower Selic rate is somewhat worrying for the carry public. Brazil’s Central Bank is certainly facing a difficult macroeconomic challenge as it is expected to find a satisfactory balance between high inflation and the economic contraction. This being said, there is little probability for lower rates in Brazil given that the consumer prices accelerate past 10%y/y.

The unwarranted and political call for lower rates has been an important issue for Turkey’s Central Bank over the past couple of years and has added significant volatility to the lira, which depreciated past 50% over the past five years. On a quick side note, the simplification regarding the complex monetary policy is certainly not on the agenda until the MPC reshuffles in April. Governor Basci will step down on April 19th and will be little devoted to launch new monetary toolbox. Fortunately, dovish G10 bankers buy time for Basci to hold on until his term is over.