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22 Jul 2016
By Mauro Fellner
PMI data concerns, GBP below 1.32
The USDJPY remains in a bullish trend with next resistance eyed at 107.00 (hourly Ichimoku cloud top) before 107.40 (100-day moving average). On Thursday, USDJPY reached 107.49, level last seen on June 7th , yet confusion about Bank of Japan’s stimulus plans caused an aggressive sell-off. The USDJPY regained the 106.00 mark, and the trend remains positive above 104.60 (major 38.2% retrace). Intermediate support is eyed at the 50-day moving average, 105.40.
Cable dropped this morning after the first PMI read after the Brxit showed significant contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors across the country. GBPUSD plunged below 1.3150. First support is seen at 1.3064 (July 20th low), if cleared, could encourage a further sell-off below the 1.3000 mark; support is eyed at 1.2849 (July 11th low). The first resistance is placed at 1.3200, above, we can expect an upside to at 1.3300/1.3314 (July 18th high), before 1.3400/1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement), and finally the 1.3500 mark.
The Aussie declined the most among major currencies this week on speculation that leading central banks will increase quantitative easing measures. After seven week of gains, the AUDUSD traded below the 0.7500 mark this week. Walking into the RBA's August 2nd meeting, we could see a further slide towards 0.7445 (Fibonacci retracement), then to 50-day moving average at 0.7427 before the critical support at 0.7341 (200-day moving average). Breaking above 0.7500/0.7513 (July 21st high), could encourage recovery towards 0.7598/0.7600 (Fibonacci retracement).
Gold prices trades sideways at about the $1320/1330 area. Gold prices are little affected by renewed speculation of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, but we will have to wait until next week for the actual decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The trend on gold remain bullish, with next resistance seen at $1338/1340 area (July 20th), if surpassed, we can expect a further rise towards $1374 (July 11th high). A support could be seen at $1310/1300 area (July 21st low). Below this level, the price could land to 1297 (Fibonacci retracement).
WTI fell to $44.40/44.60 area from $49 beginning of July. The trend remains bearish due to concern about global glut. The next support level is seen at $44.23 (intraday low), if broken, could drag the market lower to $43.65 (July 20th low). The first resistance is seen at $45.00 mark, above, the price could test 50-hour moving average at $45.28. To talk about sustainable recovery, the price needs surge above the $46.00/46.06 (July 21st high & 200-hour moving average).
The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please note that 71% of our retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
