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25 Jan 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
GBPUSD hesitant at 1.43
USDJPY was better bid in Tokyo along with Japanese stocks (Nikkei gained 0.90%, Topix rallied 1.34%). USDJPY tested Ichimoku baseline (118.75) on the upside. Stronger positive trend suggest a possible extension toward the cloud cover (120.92/122.01), the Fib resistance at 118.95 (major 38.2% on Nov-Jan decline) is yet to be cleared. Support is eyed at 117.90 (pivot).
Asian traders pushed GBPUSD up to 1.4332 but the hesitation around 1.43 continues into the European open. Overnight gains are fully erased. Technically, the rebound from 1.4080 last week improved the technical picture. The MACD is about to step in the positive territory. Should 1.4255/5 support holds (Fib 38.2% on Jan 21-22 rise), the recovery could aim 1.4395 (50.0% extension before 1.4428 (Fib 31.8% ext.). Key resistance is eyed at 1.4500/555 (major 38.2%).
Sydney watched AUDUSD’s struggle to defend gains above 0.70. Bulls finally gave up and the AUDUSD slipped to a session low into the European open (0.6977). Trend and momentum indicators are neutral, about to turn positive. Support is eyed at 0.6945 (Fib 23.6% retrace on Dec 31 – Jan 15 decline), then 6880/64 (Jan 15 low).A break above 0.7017 (Fib 38.2%) should suggest a short-term bullish reversal to 0.7075 (Fib 50%) before 0.7149 (100dma).
Mid-term critical resistance remains at 0.7380 (Fib 38.2%). Below 0.7380, the mid-term bias remains negative and we see opportunity in selling the rallies.
The broad USD weakness helped gold to $1105 despite good risk appetite. Bulls are currently facing offers at 1105/1115 with the help of sifter USD. If cleared, we could see an advance to 1125/1130 (one-month uptrend channel top).
The recovery in oil market is underway. WTI tested $32.75 on Friday. Although the appetite is more contained this Monday, positive momentum could pick up for further recovery toward 34.00/34.50. Support is eyed at $30/29.50.
The information and comments provided herein under no circumstances are to be considered an offer or solicitation to invest and nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the date the information is produced. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Please note that 71% of our retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
