Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD extended losses to 1.0990 and consolidated. The slide below the 1.10 mark brings the 1.0971/55 zone (area including the 50 and 100-dma and Fib 38.2% retrace on Aug-Dec’15 decline) on the table. The negative momentum gains strength. Resistance is seen at 1.1050 200day moving average). Surpassing the 1.1050 handle, the EURUSD is expected face decent resistance at 1.1160, Fib 38.2% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb11 rise. Only a break above should signal an improvement in sentiment for a recovery to 1.1243 (minor 23.6% retrace) and 1.1376 (Feb 11 peak).

USDJPY extended losses to 111.78 despite FinMin Aso hinting at more fiscal stimulus. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative, suggesting a further slide toward the next critical level at 110.99 (Feb 11 dip). On the upside, resistance is seen at 112.93 (Ichimoku conversion line) before 113.50/113.75 (former support turn resistance / 200hma). The Fibonacci level of 115.08 (major 38.2% retrace off Jan 29 high 121.69) should distinguish between the current downtrend and a potential reversal in yen’s appreciation. Only surpassing 115.08 could signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace).

GBPUSD fell to 1.4058, a fresh seven-year low on the heel of mounting Brexit risks. The negative momentum gained traction and the 1.4291 (major 38.2% retrace on Feb 4- 22 fall) should lend resistance to the current downtrend. Intermediate resistance is eyed at .4202 (minor 23.6%). Breaking below the fresh 7-year low of 1.4058, the critical 1.40 mark will be directly on the radar. Light vanilla puts are waiting to be activated at 1.40 for today’s expiry.
Below 1.40 handle, the next technical support stands as far as 1.3657 (March 2009 dip) and 1.3503 (January 2009 dip).

AUDUSD extended gains to 0.7259, aiming to grasp the 200-dma (0.7278) before a further advance to mid-term critical resistance zone 0.7340/85 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high). Next supports are eyed at 0.7157 (100-dma), 0.7146 (minor 23.6%) before 0.7080 (Fib 50%).

Gold is well supported by $1200 level. Below this level, we will watch $1080, the Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rally, to lend support to the current bullish development for a potential mid-term recovery toward 1250/1260 (Feb 11 peak). Below 1180, a further slide to $1055 (Fib 50%) could be considered.

WTI finally surged above the $32 resistance (4-month downtrend channel top), surpassed the 50-dma ($32.70) and rebounded lower in Asia after hitting a three week high of $33.45. It is well possible to see a pause at these levels before considering a further rise toward the $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance zone. On the downside, support is eyed at $31.50 (pivot) before a re-test of the $30 mark and $29.60 (200-hma).