Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD consolidates below 1.09. A slide below the 1.0850 (Fib 61.8% on Dec-Feb rise) could pave the way for a further slide to 1.0725 (minor 74.6% before 1.0524 (Dec low). Above 1.09, more offers are presumed at 1.0930/50 (50dma / Fib 50% retrace on Dec-Feb rise). The key resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise), below which the EURUSD is considered in the bearish trend. It is just a matter of time before a fall to 1.0850/10 (Fib 61.8% / Feb low). Clearing support at 1.0815/10 should pave the way toward the 1.0725 (minor 76.4%) before 1.0524 (Dec low). Only surpassing the 1.1051, a recovery back to 1.1175 (minor 23.6%) could be considered. The key resistance is 1.1376 (Feb 2nd).

USDJPY rallied to 114.45. The MACD stepped in the bullish zone, suggesting there may be consolidation and even recovery underway. Breaking above the 114.00 double top, there may be room for a further extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 will signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). The key support stands at 110.99 (Feb dip). Support is seen at 112.80 (200hma) before 112.00, week’ low.

GBPUSD continues challenging the 1.40 resistance. The 1.4037, minor 23.6% on Feb decline, is expected to cap any upside attempt past 1.40 (short-term pivot). Intermediate resistance is eyed at 1.4115 before the critical short-term level of 1.4158 (major 38.2%) which should keep the bias on the downside for extension of losses to fresh 7-yr low levels (1.3836). Only surpassing 1.4158 could give a relief to the market. Key resistance is eyed at 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement).

AUDUSD surged to 0.7244 on better-than-expected GDP read. The 200-dma (0.7256) is under increasing pressure as carry traders seek return on rate differential with the improved risk appetite. The MACD is at the zeroline as the 0.7160/0.7100 support remains intact (area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide). A further push toward 0.7280/0.7300 is possible. The 200-dma (0.7256) is an important barrier before a further rise to 0.7280/0.7300. Key mid-term resistance is seen at 0.7340/85 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high).

Gold is approaching the lower part of the recent up-trending base, suggesting that a new push up could develop. The improvement in the risk appetite could bring the $1250/65 resistance in play. Support is eyed at $1200/1212 (minor 23.6% on Dec-Feb rise). Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.

WTI advanced to $34.29, just a stone’s throw below the $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance zone. Support is seen at $33.10 (pivot), then at the 50dma ($32.30). If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $30.90 (21-dma) before a re-test of the $30 mark (five-month downtrend channel top).