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22 Aug 2016
By Mauro Fellner
USD strengthens, as oil retreats
The USDJPY opened the week with a positive gap following dovish comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda. The pair is trading above 100.00, which could also act as a intra-day support. Breaking below this level could cause a further drop to 99.53 (August 16th low), then to 98.99 (June 24th low). Surpassing 101.45 (August 15th high), the USDJPY could recover to 102.65 (August 8th high), before 103.25 (50-day moving average).
Cable is trading flat above 1.3000 mark. Surpassing the 1.3145 (50-day moving average) could encourage some more bids towards 1.3370 (August 3rd high), while breaking the 1.3000 support could cause a drop to 1.2865 (August 15th low).
The AUDUSD retreated to 0.7583 in Sydney. Clearing this support could cause a further drop to 0.7556 (50-day moving average), then to 0.7446 (100-day moving average), before the critical 0.7386 (200-day moving average). Surpassing the 0.7700 resistance, could encourage a recovery to 0.7755 (August 10th high), if surpassed, could find more momentum to target 0.7834 level (April 21st high).
Gold opened the week downbeat on stronger US dollar. The short term support is eyed at $1330 an ounce (50-hour moving average). A break below this level could encourage a sell off to $1310 (July 21st low) before the $1300 mark. Climbing above 1358 (August 16th high) could bring in the possibility of a rise to 1374 top level (July 11th high).
Oil prices fell on Monday after a record week of gains since April. Brent is holding above $50 a barrel, while WTI is trading down 1.5% at $47.79 a barrel. The August rally looks less consistent, while driven by short covering and OPEC talks about potential supply cap.
Should the bears pick-up momentum, WTI could drop below $47.00, and retreat to $45/45.50 area. Surpassing 48.52 (August 19th high), we could see a fresh attempt to the price to target the $50 mark.
