Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD is trading across the 200-day moving average, waiting for the afternoon’s US NFP and jobs report which is likely to provide direction. We set first support at 1.094 (Fibonacci retracement), which if broken could bring to test the 1.0900 and then the 1.0800 mark. First resistance is seen at 1.1200 with the next level at 1.1267 (100-day moving average). If this is surpassed, the pair could advance towards 1.1300/1.1359 (Fibonacci retracement).

Concerns surrounding Italian Banks and uncertainties about the outcome of the US job report, are pushing investors away from risk. The Asian stock markets retreated (Nikkei -1.10%, Hang Seng-0.89%), and the yen appreciated overnight, with the USDJPY dropping to 100.24 before bouncing above the 100.50 level. The pair is likely to be affected by the NFP data, while the main event to watch is going to be next Sunday’s election in Japan where Prime Minister Abe might lose his majority in the parliament.

UK June GfK consumer confidence fell to -9 (before the Brexit vote the data was -1), which is the biggest drop since January 2011. Also data from the jobs market are showing the first drop, with employers less keen to hire on a Permanent contract (lowest data since 2012). The US Job report and the NFP data could increase volatility in the GBPUSD today. The next support is seen at 1.2876 (July 7th low) and below this we are likely to see a further drop to test the 1.2800 mark. The first resistance is the 1.3000 mark, then past that 1.3430 (Fibonacci retracement) the pair could start a recovery.

AUDUSD moves on the side-lines right across the 0.7500 mark waiting for the NFP data to come out this afternoon. First support is seen at 0.7448 (38.2% major Fibonacci retracement on January to April rise), and below that level the pair could drop to 0.7329 (50% Fibonacci retrace), then to 0.7315 (200-day moving average). Looking at the upside, the Aussie could appreciate above the 0.7543 (July 4th high), and push towards 0.7595/0.7600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). Surpassed this level the pair could extend gains towards the 0.7700 mark.

The global risks starting from Europe with the Brexit, new Italian Banks concerns, and the US Job report this afternoon, are scaring investors and pushing them to safe havens. Gold reached a new 4-month high at 1370 (July 6th high), and this level could be tested today – if surpassed, gold could target the 1400$/oz level. First support is 1350 (July 7th low) then below that level 1338 (200-hour moving average), before the 1300 mark.

Oil prices rebounded on Friday bouncing off a two-month low that was reached in the previous session. Brent trades above 46.50, while WTI is moving at 45.50$ a barrel, with next resistance seen at 45.73 (intraday high) then if this is surpassed we could see a rise to 46.00/46.18 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement on June 22nd to July 7th dip). A break below the 45.00 could push the price to test 44.86 (July 7th low).