The US dollar gapped higher at the open on news that FBI sent a letter to Congress citing that Hillary Clinton hadn’t committed a crime with her private server. Hectic behavior in the US dollar crosses is on the menu as we are heading into the critical US presidential election, scheduled on November 8th.
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EURUSD tanked to 1.1044 at the open. The short-term critical support, at 1.1030 (major 38.2% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 4th rise), should keep the bias favourable for a further bullish development to 1.1130 (100-day moving average), before 1.1198 (200-day moving average). Below, the short-term bearish reversal should encourage a deeper downside correction to 1.1002 (200-hour moving average) before 1.0996 (Fib 50% level).
The yen has been the biggest loser (-1.23%) against the US dollar on the back of the FBI-related risk-on rally. The
USDJPY reversed the short-term trend, yet the upside is expected to remain capped before Tuesday’s US election. A mean reversion pattern on hourly basis is expected to bring the USDJPY down to 104.18 (200-hour moving average), before 103.58 (100-hour moving average) and 103.25 (50-day hour moving average). Solid offers are eyed pre-105.00 and 105.35 (200-day moving average).
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GBPUSD eased to 1.2423 in Asia. Despite the early US dollar rally, the rising stress in the USD is expected to keep the bias positive for a renewed attempt toward 1.2560 before 1.2622 / 1.2630 (pre-Oct 7th flash crash high / 50-day moving average). Intra-day supports are eyed at 1.2375 (major 38.2% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 4th rise), 1.2319 (Fib 50% level) and 1.2280 (200-hour moving average).
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AUDUSD diverged positively compared to its G10 peers, as the risk-on rally quickly sent the pair above 0.7664 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 28th to Nov 4th rise), after a plunge to 0.7659 at the open. Still, the appetite wanes approaching the 0.7700-handle; solid offers are eyed at 0.7710/0.7730, mid-term resistance area. Intra-day supports are eyed at 0.7643/0.7642 (major 38.2% retrace / 200-hour moving average) and 0.7627 (Fib 50% level).
Gold cheapened by 1.24%, as capital returned to risk assets on FBI’s statement that Hillary Clinton is cleared. The downside is expected to remain capped at $1280 (major 200-day moving average). The upside risks prevail. A sudden reversal in risk sentiment could cause a rapid recovery to $1300, before $1317 (100-day moving average).
The
WTI traded above $50/barrel as the Algerian minister said the OPEC will agree on production quotas at next week’s meeting. However, the market remains skeptical on OPEC’s capacity to seal a deal. The bias remains on the downside, for an extension of the weakness toward $44.15 (200-day moving average) before $43 (Sep 19th dip). Offers are eyed at $45.80 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Nov 4th fall) and $47.02 (major 38.2% retrace).