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Trade Talk Optimism Calms Markets For Now
Weak economic data and anxiety over global growth made for another turbulent session on Wall Street. Apple dived 9% as it cut revenue guidance owing to weak Chinese sales and disappointing upgrades. The Apple bombshell plus weak US manufacturing data sent the Dow 2.8% lower. As a growing number of signs of the negative impact of the US – Sino trade war materialise, its worth keeping in mind that Apple could just be the start of a long list of firms having to lower guidance.

Moving into Friday, sentiment and global stocks perked up on optimism that some progress will be made in coming US – Sino trade talks. There is a level of caution which will cap gains; this is by no means the first time that the equity indices have gained on the hope of deescalating trade tension

Crude moves higher as OPEC Cuts to take effect
WTI crude oil traded high early on Friday, putting it on track for its sixth straight session of gains. Oil was so oversold that it is managing to shrug off recent data disappointments. Even as Chinese and US manufacturing activity fell short of expectations, and concerns over a slowing global economy grew, oil still closed 0.8% higher.
Despite the recent turmoil, oil markets are set to receive some support going forward, as OPEC agreed supply cuts are due to kick in. If OPEC stick to the plan, then within a matter of months the supply glut could be mopped up and oil prices stabilised. Taking into account increased US production we could still see oil back to $55 in the Q1 of 2019.

US non-farm payrolls to boost the dollar?
Wednesday’s dismal manufacturing data combined with growing concerns over the health of the global economy threw into question the Fed’s ability to hike rates this year. As a result, the dollar traded 0.4% lower versus a basket of currencies. Traders will be watching the US non farm payrolls closely for signs that the Fed could end up cutting rather than hiking rates later this year. A rate cut is now fully priced in for 2020.

The jobs report is expected to show that 177,000 new jobs were created in the US in December. This would total 2.45 million jobs created in 2018, the most since 2015. Notably, December’s estimate is the lowest medium projection since last January.

Whilst the number of jobs created in November fell well short of expectations at 155,000, there are some signs pointing to a strong print later today. The ADP employment report saw the best job creation since February 2017 and the fourth largest monthly job creation since 2009. There is a chance that economists have been caught up in market pessimism, setting up the jobs data for a positive surprise.

A stronger than forecast reading could help the dollar pare some of the losses from the previous session. However, a weaker than forecast figure would be ammunition for dollar bears, potentially pulling the dollar below 96.00 a level which has acted as a support across the past month, before it moves down to test October’s low of 94.00.

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21-11-2019

Royal Mail goes postal, Labour manifesto & HK bill tensions
European shares have opened lower on Thursday after a weak session in Asia with US futures pointing to soft start on Wall Street. The US dollar is a little softer this morning after a positive response to Fed minutes. Oil prices are stable following the big ju… Read more

20-11-2019

Stocks fall, Alibaba, Swedbank, Leaders debate reaction & oil
European shares have opened lower on Wednesday with the retreat led by energy stocks after a drop in oil prices. US futures point to a weak start on Wall Street with Dow set to open below 28,000. Gold is making some headway as a haven asset while the dollar is… Read more

19-11-2019

Boris vs Corbyn, HK masks ruling & easyJet net-zero
European shares have opened with small gains on Tuesday following a meandering session in Asia while futures point to a modest gain at the open on Wall Street. The US dollar and oil prices are rebounding slightly from yesterday’s slide.   Hong Kong mask ruli… Read more

18-11-2019

China rate cut, Dow 28k, Tories back Boris' deal & Aramco
European shares have opened modestly higher with US futures pointing to an advance on Wall Street. In forex markets the British pound is making the biggest gains while the Chinese yuan is lower. Gold prices are a touch lower, while oil prices are flat. Asian … Read more

15-11-2019

Emotional roller-coaster on US-China bets. US stocks to renew record at open
Asian stocks were better bid on Friday, even in Hong Kong, after White House’s Kudlow said that a trade deal is ‘coming down to the short strokes’.Nikkei (+0.75%) and Topix (+0.71%) recovered losses, the ASX (+0.86%) was pulled higher by improved appetite for … Read more

14-11-2019

Investors lose appetite amid HK paralysis, soft Chinese data. GBP counts on strong Oct sales
Hong Kong continues boiling as protests ratcheted up another notch with a complete paralysis of the city amid fear and uncertainty about when and how the unrest would ease. Subway and roads are blocked, schools are closed.Stocks in Hong Kong fell as much as 1.… Read more

13-11-2019

RBNZ throws a curveball. Equities down on waning appetite. Pound is quiet before inflation data
The Kiwi rallied after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.00%, while investors were expecting a 25-basis-point cut to 0.75%. The NZ 10-year yield jumped 16 points. Even the worsening inflation outlook didn’t bring… Read more

12-11-2019

Investors turn to cash on lack of further progress in US-China talk
Alibaba beats its own record by more than 26%If the Singles’ Day sales are a gauge of the Chinese consumer health, then the Chinese consumers are doing just fine. E-sales on Alibaba’s platform hit a new worldwide record with $38 billion worth of sales during t… Read more