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Soft GBP demand pre-Autumn Statement
The EURUSD treads water around the 50, 100-hour moving averages (1.0630). Failure to pick-up a stronger positive momentum suggests the exhaustion of the current recovery. Resistances are eyed at 1.0700 and 1.0741 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 18th decline), while the downside becomes appealing for a setback to 1.0583 (Nov 22nd double bottom on hourly basis), 1.0570 (Nov 18th dip) before the critical 1.0524 (Dec 2nd 2015 low).

Appetite in the USDJPY remains solid despite the overbought conditions on daily basis (30-day RSI at 79). Buyers are touted at 110.90 and 110.55 (50, 100-hour moving averages respectively), for a rise to 111.50 before a further extension to 112.00/112.50. Decent call options stand at 110.00 and below at today’s expiry and should give support to a further bullish development.

The GBPUSD remains under pressure before the UK’s Autumn Statement. The downside risks prevail, although the UK’s ‘eye-wateringly’ high current account deficit suggests a limited budget for government spending to help boosting the economy post-Brexit. Offers are eyed at 1.2444/1.2455 (major 38.2% retrace on Nov 11th to Nov 18th decline & 50-day moving average / 200-hour moving average), 1.2487 (Fib 50% level), max 1.2531 (major 61.8% retrace).

The AUDUSD extended recovery to 0.7435 and gathered enough momentum to target the 200-hour moving average (0.7465), max 0.7488 (major 38.2% retrace on Nov 8th to Nov 21st rise). Light option barriers trail below 0.7500 at today’s expiry and could weigh on the recovery.

Gold trades a touch below the 100-hour moving average, $1215. The fading conviction for a further recovery to $1225 (200-hour moving average) and $1234 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 18th decline) should encourage a retracement to $1205/1200 area.

Optimism regarding a potential OPEC deal took a hit as uncertainties persist before Nov 30th Vienna meeting. The WTI's hourly MACD stepped in the bearish zone, suggesting a setback to $47.00 (100-hour moving average), $46.75 (major 38.2% retracement on Nov 14th to Nov 22nd rise), max $46.00 (Fib 50% & 200-hour moving average). Solid offers are eyed pre-$50.00.