Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD is testing the 1.1135 support (200-day moving average), if broken could encourage a further sell-off to 1.1070 (50% Fibonacci retracement on December to May rise). Below this level, EURUSD could extend losses to 1.0941 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A rise above 1.1200 (100-day moving average) could encourage bids towards 1.1358 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement).

Japanese yen traded rangebound against the US dollar. A recover for USDJPY above the 102.65 (August 8th high) could hint at a further extension towards 104.26 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement on January to June decline), should the US yields hold ground. The critical support is presumed at 100.67 (August 2nd low), if broken, could bring the 100.00 mark back on the radar, before 98.99 (July 24th low).

Cable found buyers around 1.2935/1.2940 (August 11th low), yet the short-term trend remains bearish. A failure to gain back the 1.30 handle could place the 1.2935 support under pressure and encourage a drop towards 1.2849 (July 11th low). Climbing above 1.30 could start attracting some buyers. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.3093 (August 9th high).

Aussie softened for the second day in a row against the US dollar. AUDUSD cleared support at 0.7700 mark, a move that could trigger a further retracement to the 0.7600/0.7593 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement on January to April rise ). Below this level, we could see an inversion of the mid-term trend to bearish. The next critical level is seen at 0.7467 (100-day moving average), then at 0.7370 (200-day moving average). AUDUSD could find renewed strength surpassing 0.7755 (August 0th high), which could encourage a rise toward 0.7833 (April 21st high).

Gold is holding the ground at about the $1335 level, waiting for the US retail sales and the PPI data due at 13.30 GMT. The trend remains bullish and surpassing $1357 (August 10th high) could support a further rise to 1374 (July 11th high), then to $1400 mark. On the downside, a step below $1323 (50-day moving average) could trigger a further sell-off to $1300 before 1286 (100-day moving average).’

Oil gained 5% on Thursday after Saudi Arabia oil minister said to consider ‘measures for stabilisation’ in next month’s OPEC meeting. WTI is currently trading above $43.50 a barrel, slightly above the $43.43 support (50% Fibonacci retracement on July to August decline). If the rumours gain traction, we could see a further recovery to 44/44.40 38