Financial market research and analysis

MARKETS
European markets have opened lower following the late losses headed into the close on Wall Street. Stocks in Asia are mostly lower with the exception of China after the PBOC kept the LPR steady.

Early optimism gave way to sweeping losses across stock markets on Monday. The 48-hour deadline from House Speaker Pelosi had spurred early ideas that a compromise could be found in the next two days. But with no signs of a deal in place half-way through the deadline, risk-taking was suspended and stock markets turned lower.

The 180 in stocks markets had little impact in FX markets. The dollar was little moved with GBP/USD and EUR.USD both higher as USD/CHF turned lower. The dollar slid after data from China and a series of speeches from central bankers.

The rollover in stock markets barely dented precious metal markets. Gold and silver prices were flat. Macro traders are sitting on their hands before the 48-hour deadline for US stimulus set out by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. OPEC was out pushing a message of strong compliance but it fell on deaf ears with oil prices turning lower on the day.

DAY AHEAD

China interest rate decision
China-sensitive assets like the AUD and HK equities are in play. No change on rates has been taken as a sign the Chinese central bank is comfortable with the speed of the recovery in China in light of the Q3 GDP figures on Monday. We wouldn’t expect any big near term shift from the PBOC while other CBs are on hold and China leads the global recovery.

Netflix Q3 earnings
Subscriber growth is inevitably stalling at Netflix since March as economies reopen. The open question is whether NFLX deserves its price multiples as subscriber growth slows. Netflix already set expectations low for Q3 – likely setting up a beat. The company expects 2.5 million net adds this quarter- that’s be a big drop from 10 million in Q2. Analysts are more positive with consensus expectations at 3.3 million new adds. The shares are part of a bigger tech trade that has outperformed companies more exposed to the business cycle. That trade is fading in light of more stimulus and hope for greater certainty the other side of November 3rd.

Snap Inc new record?
Investor optimism towards Snap is strong heading into its Q3 earnings – the stock is on the cusp of a new record high – something that has not been on the cards since its IPO in early 2017. Analysts were questioning the ability of Snap to survive the Facebook onslaught from Instagram. It’s not that Snap have done everything right - the app redesign was a big flop. Being a direct competitor to Facebook that faces so many political headwinds - including the threat of breakup - is valuable potion to be in.