Financial market research and analysis

The day ahead will see two US corporate behemoths Intel and Coca-Cola report Q3 results while the lack of US stimulus puts the spotlight on weekly jobless claims.

European stocks look set for opening losses on Thursday with indices testing the lowest levels in a month. The FTSE 100 is on course to strike its lowest levels since May with a weak market move compounded by strength in the pound.

Wednesday was an ugly day across European stock markets as earnings season kicked off in the region. New economically damaging COVID restrictions make it hard to take the view that any European earnings recovery is sustainable. Wall Street finished mixed but looks setup for soft open on Thursday.

The British pound was the standout mover in FX markets on news that the UK and EU would restart stalled post-Brexit trade talks and as the EU’s top negotiator said a deal is within reach. Markets had never really bought into Johnson’s threat to walk away or the EU's summit ultimatum and bought heavily into the latest news that confirms the view a last-minute – maybe ‘skinny’ – trade deal can be done.

MARKETS
Tesla reports its 5th consecutive quarterly profit
IMF downgrades Asia 2020 growth forecast
UK government debt at its highest in 60 years
New York virus cases reach 2000 per day for 1st time since March
Brazilian volunteer in AstraZeneca COVID vaccine trial dies
Bitcoin jumps to $12,800 as PayPal announces crypto trading feature
Snap stock jumps 30% on big Snapchat user and Q3 earnings growth

Copper reaches new 2-year high, $7000 per tonne
GBP/USD shoots up 200 pips above 1.315
EUR/USD notches up 4-day win streak
FTSE 100 falls below 5800 to test 5-month low

DAY AHEAD
Intel Q3 earnings
Intel has upstaged its own earnings day with a huge divestiture of its flash memory business. It will sell the unit to South Korea’s SK Hynix for $9 billion. Falling memory prices have meant it was a losing division for Intel for 5 years and management appear to have taken the view that now is not the time to invest in a rebound. The timing may be coincidental or management are looking to make a statement as top and bottom line revenue falls. EPS is projected to slip to $1.11 from $1.42 last year while revenue is projected to decline to $18.24 billion from $19.19 billion last year. The decision to delay the release of its next generation of chip tugged the shares down this year and Intel will want to add some clarification to this issue.

Coca-Cola Q3 earnings
Coca-Cola is well established as a defensive stock, geared towards earning yield and a Warren Buffet top holding. But those yield hungry investors might not take much comfort what unusually unsteady earnings. Consensus EPS is $0.46 (-18%) and revenues are expected at $8.37 billion (-11.9%). Coco-Cola stock (KO) is down 9.4% ytd, which look very unfavourable compared to the 6.5% gain in the S&P 500.
Coca-Cola is very exposed to the pandemic from its ‘on the go’ business that includes restaurants, bars and entertainment venues. Exposure to travel and leisure is going to be a problem for the foreseeable future so management are taking the tough decisions with its 400 core brands. Tab soda was axed and many others – those with niche jurisdictions and lower revenues will be likely follow.

US jobless claims
Claims data lost its importance during the Q3 recovery but the longer Q4 goes on without a new US stimulus package, the more that changes. Last week the claims data showed some of the biggest signs of really rolling over, upending a multi-month improvement. Claims hit their highest since August at 898,000. Consensus for this week is an improvement to 860,000. The silver lining of another big miss might be to wake up partisan politicians into agreeing more stimulus.