Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD has strengthened through the 200-day moving average (1.1048) in Asia but sharply erased overnight gains into the European open. The pair is presently testing the 1.1026 support (Fib 61.8% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb 11 rise & 50hma) and appears to be up for a setback toward the 1.10 mark. Below 1.10, the EURUSD is expected to test the 1.0980/50 area, including the 50 and 100-dma and Fib 38.2% retrace on Aug-Dec’15 decline. Resistance is seen at 1.1070/80 (short-term pivot). Surpassing this area, the recovery could extend to 1.1160 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb11 rise), then to 1.1243 (minor 23.6% retrace) before 1.1376 (Feb 11 peak).

USDJPY remains capped below its 200-hour moving average (112.96). Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative, suggesting that the next bearish wave could well break the 110.99 and extend toward the 110 mark. On the upside, resistance is seen at 112.96 (200-hma) then at 113.50/113.75 (minor 23.6% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). The major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, is there to distinguish between the current downtrend and a potential reversal in yen’s appreciation. Only surpassing 115.08 could signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace).

GBPUSD bounced back above the 1.40 mark against the US dollar yet failed to extend gains above 1.4043. The key resistance stands at a distant 1.4180 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Feb 4 – 24 drop). Above this level, GBPUSD could enter the bullish consolidation zone and aim a further recovery toward 1.4260 (this week’s high). Below 1.4180, the technical bias should remain on the downside and could well drag the GBPUSD toward the 1.3880 – a seven-year low.

AUDUSD remained capped by the 200-day moving average (0.7265) despite a risk-on in Chinese equities. Trend and momentum indicators remain marginally bullish and could take the pair higher toward the .7340/85 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high). Short-term support is eyed at 0.7160/0.7100 (including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide.

Gold consolidates gains as, despite a better risk appetite today, insecure investors hang onto their holdings in the precious metal. The $1200/1212 (minor 23.6% on Dec-Feb rise) should continue lending support to the current bullish development. Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.

WTI extended gains to a fresh week high with potential for a further rise toward the $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance zone. On the downside, support is eyed at $ 32.40 (50ma) and at $30.75 (five-month downtrend channel top) before a re-test of the $30 mark.