Financial market research and analysis

The EURUSD accumulated losses on Tuesday morning, and moved right below 1.1000 mark. The bearish trend could lead to a further sell-off toward the 1.0940 support (major Fibonacci retracement) in the wake of the European Central Bank meeting. If 1.0940 is broken, we could then see a further slump to 1.0910 (June 24th low). The first resistance is seen at 1.1070/1.1080 area (Fibonacci retracement and July 19th high), if surpassed, should encourage a rise to 1.1109 (200-day moving average), before 1.1170 (50-day moving average) and eventually 1.1198/1.11200 mark (Fibonacci retracement).

After the longest winning streak in nine months, Japanese stock markets retreated on Tuesday morning (Nikkei -0.25%, Topix -0.05%). The sell-off of in the yen continues on the back of the rising expectation for the BoJ to intervene with additional QE at July 29th policy meeting. The USDJPY took over the 50-day moving average, and it is advancing towards the 107.40 (100-day moving average). Above this level, we could see a further upside towards 110.00/110.26 (Fibonacci retracement). The first support is eyed at 105.50 (50-day moving average), if broken, could lead to 104.24 (Fibonacci retracement), then to 103.90 (July 13th low).

The GBPUSD tanked heavily to 1.3065 before the UK’s employment report. then the British pound welcomed the UK job report. A better than expected jobs data (unemployment rate at 4.9% against the 5.0% forecasted, and the claimant count at 0.4K against the 4.1K expected & 12.2K previously) cleared the resistance at the 200-hour moving average, 1.3157 and paved the way toward the 1.3200 resistance. If 1.32 level is surpassed, we could see a further rise towards 1.3300/1.3314 (July 18th high) then to 1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement).

The Aussie fell for the second session in a row on the back of mounting expectation for a RBA rate cut in August. The AUDUSD is testing the 100-day moving average, 0.7475, on the downside. We could see a further slide to 0.7445 (major Fibonacci retracement), and below this level, the pair could reverse the trend to bearish with next support seen at 0.7400/0.7412 (50-day moving average). The rise above 0.7500 mark could encourage fresh longs and push the pair to 0.7593/0.7600 (Fibonacci retracement).’

After the US housing and building permit data showing a good condition of the American economy, the investors have moved risk-on, and the US dollar has strengthened. This caused a $13 drop in Gold prices. The technical support is seen at $1319 (July 14th low), and below this level, we could see a further slide to $1305 support (June 28th low) and to $1300/1296 (Fibonacci retracement). First resistance is at $1346 (July 14th high), if surpassed, could encourage buyers toward the 1374 (July 11th high).

Oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US crude inventory data is due today. Brent price is down to $46.60, while WTI has already lost 1.3% to $44.50.
Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels last week against the forecast of 2.1 million barrel decline.
If the EIA confirms a drawdown, it will be the ninth straight week in which the U.S. crude stockpiles have fallen.