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Euro gains, USD hesitant

The EURUSD gained strength as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained the status quo at yesterday’s monetary policy meeting. President Mario Draghi stated that the committee didn’t discuss about extension in the current asset purchases program. The 1.1248 (major 38.2% retrace on Aug 31st to Sep 8th rise) should give support for a positive development. Breaking above the 1.1340, the EURUSD could gain enough momentum to target 1.1500, before 1.1616 (2016 high). More support is eyed at 1.1225/1.1220 (50% retracement / 100-hour moving average).

The 100-hour moving average, 102.40, acted as a solid resistance to the recent recovery in the USDJPY. The short-term direction is unclear. Intra-day support is seen at 101.69 (major 61.8% retrace on Aug 26th – Sep 2nd rise) before 101.06 (minor 76.4%) and 100.04 (Sep 26th low). Above 102.40, the pair would bump into more resistance at 102.70 / 102.80 (major 38.2% retrace / 200-hour moving average).

The GBP-bulls are gaining confidence; the 1.3296 (major 38.2% retrace on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance) is yet to be broken to send Cable in the short-term bearish consolidation zone. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.3345/1.3352 (100-hour moving average /minor 23.6% retrace). Support is seen at 1.3264 (200-hour moving average) and 1.3250 (Fibonacci 50%).’

The AUDUSD retreated to 0.7648-support (major 61.8% retrace on Aug 16th – Aug 31st decline) as the sellers didn’t allow a further upside past 0.7730). The pair remains in the ascending trend channel with the possibility of a rebound to 0.7730/0.7750. Breaking below the trend-line base, 0.7648, we could expect a further pullback to 0.7615 (50% retrace) and 0.7593 / 0.7588 (200-hour moving average / major 61.8% retrace).

Gold hovers around its 50-day moving average ($1339). Investors are hesitant given the slight improvement in Fed expectations. The weekly bias remains on the upside with the $1305 / 1297 (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) seen as a solid mid-term support.

U.S. crude oil inventory drop the most since 1999, as imports to gulf coast hit a record low owing due to the weather conditions. News sent WTI hit $47.75 and continues gaining momentum on the upside. Intra-day support is seen at $45.92 (major 38.2% retrace on Sep 1st – Sep 8th rise). Surpassing $48.44 (Aug 25 peak) should bring the possibility of further development to $50. Still, the event risk remains high into the September informal OPEC meeting.