Financial market research and analysis

The negative pressure on the EURUSD eases on the back of a broad-based sell-off in the US dollar. Trend and momentum indicators are flat-to-negative. Intra-day resistance is eyed at 1.1250/1.1245 (area including the major 38.2% retracement on Aug 31st to Sep 8th rise and 100-hour moving average), 1.1279 (minor 23.6%) and 1.1295 (ascending channel top). On the downside, the 1.1225 / 1.1212 / 1.1200 (50% retracement / 200-hour moving average / major 61.8% retrace) should challenge the bears.

The visibility in the USDJPY is very limited due to the joint uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s policy outlooks. The mean-reversion pattern is expected to dominate given the lack of conviction for a breakout on either side. Intra-day resistances are eyed at 102.00 (100-hour moving average), 102.25 (50-hour moving average), 102.40 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 2nd to Sep 7th pullback) and 102.65 / 102.75 (200-hour moving average / major 50% retrace). Intra-day supports are presumed at 101.94 (minor 23.6% and ascending base line since Sep 7th) before 101.20 (Sep 7th low) and 100.04 (Sep 26th low).

The UK inflation data is expected to give a clearer short-term direction to the GBPUSD. A positive surprise should underpin the short-term recovery toward 1.3445/1.3500, while a negative surprise is expected to encourage a pullback to 1.3296 (major 38.2% retrace on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance), 1.3205 (major 61.8%) and 1.3150 (minor 76.4%).

Gains in the AUDUSD remained capped despite a softer US dollar. The short-term resistance is eyed at 0.7585 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 8th – Sep 12th decline). A break below 0.7490 (Aug 31st low) should encourage a further sell-off to 0.7440/0.7420 (July 20 & 26th support).

Gold hovers around $1330. The Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and the US dollar appetite will determine the value of gold on the run to FOMC decision due on September 22nd. The $1305 / 1297 zone (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support, while the upside is expected to remain capped at $ 1335 (50-day moving average) and $1350, two-week downtrend channel top.

The market remains seller on rallies in WTI futures. Offers are presumed at $46.60 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 1st to Sep 8th recovery). Below $44.80 (major 61.8%), a further sell-off to could be considered toward $44.10 (minor 74.6%) and $43.00/42.50.’