Financial market research and analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

CFD trading is high risk and may not be suitable for everyone.
Equities pullback, PBOC lending & higher inflation help CNH

The rate of new virus cases is slowing, and investors stepped heavily back into risky assets last week. A little caution was on display come Friday which is running through to Monday.

Workers at the Foxconn factory in Zhengzhou getting the go-ahead to return to work is hopefully a sign the worst economic drag from the coronavirus outbreak is behind us. However, five Britons contracting it in the French alps is a warning that things could take a turn for the worse again.


Asian equities were mostly lower on Monday, tracking the losses from Friday on Wall Street. The first batch of a series of special lending programs from the PBOC to regional banks in areas of China affected by the coronavirus is helping shares in Shanghai gets a small boost. Assuming we aren’t headed for some apocalyptic outcome from the virus, from a market perspective the main concern is economic. The more Chinese central bankers do to address any economic fallout, the more investors can afford to discount the coronavirus.

A mixed bag non-farm payrolls report saw US shares pull back with some understandable profit-taking at the end of its best weekly gain since the summer. We might have considered it a goldilocks jobs report in other circumstances; big job gains with more modest wage inflation that should keep the Fed at bay. But after a big weekly gain and when the coronavirus situation isn’t still fully understood, traders took their gains and ran.

European equities are set for a slightly weaker start. European indices are just off record highs and awaiting more macro catalysts and better earnings to continue the rally. Monday could be a day of preparation with a lot of the action on Tuesday with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress and the New Hampshire Primary. Looking further out across the week we have earnings from Alibaba, Nvidia as well as Barclays and the scandal-hit Credit Suisse.


A multitude of evidence that the US economy is acerbating again saw the dollar make some headway.

Easing concerns around the coronavirus and inflation data coming in hotter than expected helped the Chinese yuan gain ground on Monday. The better outlook for China, with inflation that implies an economy awash with money and performing well has helped the Aussie dollar rally off decade lows. AUDUSD at 0.67 is big support but we suspect given the prospect of lower demand for its raw materials from China, the level will break.

The Kiwi dollar is up slightly on Monday having fallen 5% year-to-date ahead of the RBNZ decision early Wednesday.


Oil prices are seeing a small lift after slumping over 6% last week, and over 15% in the past three weeks. Oil market sentiment is so dour that a rebound is overdue but its not clear what the catalyst can be if Russia stops OPEC+ from delivering on additional output cuts.

Gold is aiming for a fourth day of gains on Monday. There is a general sense that the coronavirus will have a negative economic effect that has already stirred up monetary easing in China and could easily do elsewhere.  


End of one of worst quarters ever
The Dow Jones just posted the worst first quarter ever. That’s how bad things are at the moment, but are they ‘peak bad’? Because that would imply a bottom in the stock market. Data from China today continue to suggest light at the end of the tunnel there, bu… Read more


Markets stabilise on hopes for vaccine, SNB intervening on franc
Beware the Ides of March. There is a lot of relief out there that March as well as the first quarter is almost over. A fresh month can offer some fresh perspective, and perhaps a more constructive one.   President Donald Trump extending social distancing gui… Read more


The rebound on stimulus hopes loses momentum. Brent < $30
A bigger picture is starting to emerge of how governments are responding to the pandemic and that in itself offers some needed certainty. Authorities are trying to balance economically damaging travel restrictions and social distancing rules with cheap loans f… Read more


Stocks Rebound after rout, Airline bailouts? Gold holds $1450
Governments are stepping up their response to the coronavirus outbreak which is allowing markets a chance to recuperate on Tuesday.   Following the worst day since Black Monday on Wall Street, US futures went ‘limit up’ – meaning prices could not rise of ove… Read more


Central Bank Bazooka Misses Target, Stocks in Freefall
Central banks led by the US shot off a bazooka of lower interest rates and quantitative easing but it has missed target. Markets are back into freefall.     Friday’s gains have evaporated and shares are headed deeper into bear market territory. Bank shares a… Read more


Dow falls into bear market, FTSE to tank, little hope for ECB
Dow drops into bear market, S&P to follow after Trump speech Trump managed to spook an already spooked market. European share markets are set for sharp opening losses. The FTSE is on course to tank 300 points to take it down 30% off its May 2018 peak. The… Read more


US tax cuts lightening the mood in market hangover
There will be investors waking up today and wondering if it was all a bad dream. But it was all too real. Oil did fall by the most since the Gulf War and global stock markets did have their worst day since the 08 crisis. Today will be a like a hangover. All yo… Read more


OPEC meeting, Flybe administration & fortune favours a brave BOE
Shares in Europe look set for higher open following the wake of a ‘Biden bounce’ on Wall Street. The Dow saw another +1000-points day led by healthcare companies on the hope the US can avoid a national healthcare service under a President Sanders. Actually, we… Read more