Financial market research and analysis

As we step in the crucial Brexit referendum week, the focus is on the UK. The GBPUSD opened in a positive note after three out of six polls were in favour of a ‘Remain’ vote. The referendum is due on June 23rd. We expect a high and two-sided price volatility.

The Euro is better bid against the greenback. The pair is approaching the 1.1357 resistance (Fibonacci retracement). The economic calendar is light and the broad US dollar weaknesses could encourage the EURUSD towards the 1.1400 and 1.1500 mark. The first support is seen at 1.1295 (50-day moving average), then at 1.1242 (100-day moving average), before the critical 1.1200 mark.

The yen seems to be on a strong bullish trend despite the dovish BoJ outlook. The critical 105.50 level has been broken last week, the USDJPY kept sliding and the next support is seen by the 100.00 mark. In order to talk about a recovery, the pair should rise above the 107.90.

British pound recorded the biggest surge in three months after a new poll showed a majority of voters favoured the ‘Remain’ side. Also, according to bookmakers figures, the probability of a Brexit is now 30% compared to a 40% last week. The GBPUSD has surpassed the 200-day moving average. Surpassing the 1.4600 mark, we could expect a further rally to 1.4768 (May 2nd high). The first support is seen at 1.4562 (200-day moving average), if broken, we expect a slump to 1.4500 mark and possibly lower to 1.4410 (major Fibonacci retracement).

Asian markets started the week upbeat (Nikkei +2.34%, Hang Seng +1.75%, ASX +1.82%). The Australian dollar takes advantage of a weaker US dollar. The AUDUSD is testing the 0.7452 resistance (100-day moving average), if surpassed, we could expect a surge to 0.7500 mark. First support is seen at 0.7379 (50-day moving average). On the downside, the next support stands at 0.7290 (200-day moving average).

Gold lost 1% after the Brexit polls showed lower probability of a Brexit. This is the beginning of an interesting week and we can expect the precious metal to swing between the 1300/1317 resistance and the 1250/1252 support.

Oil accumulated gains after a positive Asian session. The WTI traded above the 49.00 mark on lower Brexit expectations and a vweaker US dollar across the board. Next resistance is presumed at the $50 mark before the 51.64 (June the 8th top level). Important support is seen at 45.80 (June 17th low).