Financial market research and analysis

The triple top formation on hourly basis pushed the EURUSD marginally lower in the Asian session. Trend and momentum indicators are flat before Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release in the US. There is room for a further drop towards 1.1045 (August lows) before the 1.10 handle. Intraday resistances could be found at 1.1266 (triple top), 1.1280 (minor 23.6% retracement on Aug 8th to Aug 31st decline) and 1.1215 (major 38.2% retrace).

The improved risk appetite kept the USDJPY bid above the 103.00 handle in Tokyo. The positive momentum looses pace on hourly basis, as the focus shifts to Friday’s NFP data. A solid NFP read could further improve he US yields and pave the way for a further recovery toward 105.00 / 107.45 area. While a disappointment in the US data could hint at a short-term correction. The pair is considered in the positive trend above 102.20, the major 38.2% retracement on post-Jackson Hole rally.

The GBPUSD has taken a positive spin. A break above the 200-hour moving average could encourage a recovery to 1.3165, the major 50% on Aug 24th – Aug 29th retreat), before 1.3250/1.3275 (last week’s resistance zone). The intraday support is eyed at 1.3108 / 1.3120 (50 and 100-hour moving averages respectively).

AUDUSD shortly traded below 0.7500 in New York, yet bounced higher in Sydney despite a significant contraction in its manufacturing industry in August. Given the weak fundamentals, the upside is expected to remain limited, leaving the possibility of a retreat toward 0.7440/0.7420 (July support) on the table. The carry traders remain on the sidelines before Friday’s NFP. Intraday offers are eyed at 0.7550 (100-hour moving average) and 0.7598 (200-hour moving averages & major 38.2% retrace on Aug 16th – Aug 31st decline).

Gold is set to cheapen to $1300 / 1297 (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise). Any upside attempt should see resistance pre-the 50-day moving average ($1337).

Oil took a dive on news that Gulf coast output hit a new record. The barrel of WTI traded at $44.50 in New York yesterday, and the petite appetite in Asia, despite the strong Chinese PMI data, kept the price of a barrel below $45. We maintain our bearish view below $46.34, the major 38.2% retrace on Aug 19th – Aug 31st drop.