Financial Market Research and Analysis

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USDJPY tops at 114.00
EURUSD dipped to 1.0912 in Asia before recovering slightly recovering into the European open. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably negative as the pair has given half of Dec-Feb gains. Offers are presumed at 1.0980/1.1000 (50dma / option expiries), the critical resistance stands at 1.1051 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Dec-Feb rise). Below this level, the slide could extend to 1.0850 (Fib 61.8%) before 1.0725 (minor 76.4%) before 1.0524 (Dec low). Above 1.1051, a recovery back to 1.1175 (minor 23.6%) could be considered. The key resistance is 1.1376 (Feb 2nd).

USDJPY formed a double top at 114.00 as risk-off following the G10 meeting drove cash into the yen. From a technical perspective, there is improvement. The conversion line (112.78) gave support to USDJPY slide while the MACD stepped in the bullish zone, suggesting consolidation and even recovery. On the upside, the 114.00 double top needs to be cleared for an extension toward the major 38.2% retrace, 115.08, on Jan 29 – Feb 11 slide). Surpassing 115.08 could signal a potentially sustainable recovery to 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace).

GBPUSD extended losses to 1.3842 in Asia. Offers are eyed at 50-100hma (1.3925/1.3950), before a recovery toward the 1.40 is considered. The 1.4037, minor 23.6% on Feb decline, is expected to cap any upside attempt, some more resistance is eyed at 1.4080/1.1100 zone. The critical short-term level to watch is the 1.4158 (major 38.2%) which should keep the bias on the downside for extension of losses to fresh 7-yr low levels. Only surpassing 1.4158 could give a relief to the market. Key resistance is eyed at 1.43 (pre-Brexit referendum date announcement).

AUDUSD bounced lower from the 200-dma (0.7261) on Friday. The sentiment deteriorates as the 0.7160/0.7100 support weakens (area including the 100 and 50 day moving averages and the minor 23.6% retrace on May’15 – Jan’16 slide). The MACD is about to step in the bearish consolidation zone, suggesting a further slide to 0.7000/0.6990. On the upside, thee 200dma is an important barrier before the 0.7340/85 (major 38.2% on May’15 – Jan’16 slide / Dec’14 high).

Gold made a bullish start to the week as G20 meeting could not ease fears regarding the turmoil. The insecure investors stay on their holdings in precious metal. The $1200/1212 (minor 23.6% on Dec-Feb rise) should continue lending support to the current bullish development. Surpassing the 1263 (Feb 11 peak), further advance to $1270/1280 is considered before $1300.

WTI tested the $34.50/35.50, mid-term resistance zone. The risk-off start pulled WTI down to $32.50, paving the way back toward the 50ma ($32.30) before the $32 support. If support at this level is broken, we could expect to see a further fall to $30.70 (five-month downtrend channel top) before a re-test of the $30 mark.