25 Oct 2016
By Ipek Ozkardeskaya
USDJPY bid, EUR, GBP steady
The EURUSD traded in the tight range of 1.0868/1.0885 in Asia. The 30-day RSI (at 27) still points at the oversold market, suggesting that we could temporarily see a recovery in the EURUSD. The 1.0860/1.0850 is expected to lend a minor support before a further drop to 1.0800 handle. Intra-day resistances are seen 1.0917 (100-hour moving average), 1.0958/1.0960 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 26th to Oct 24th decline & 200-hour moving average) and 1.1020 (major 38.2% retrace).
The USDJPY traded a leg up to 104.49 in Tokyo. While exporters and the options market remain seller above 104.50, surpassing 104.65 could encourage a further attempt to 105.00, max 105.50. Short-term support stands at 103.90 (200-hour moving average), 103.55 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 13th rise), 103.15 (Oct 19th low) and 102.89 (major 38.2% retracement).
The GBPUSD refuses to move away from its 50, 100 and 200-hour moving averages, 1.2220/1.2245 area. A positive breakout above 1.2295 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 28th to Oct 7th crash) in pre-signal and 1.2330 (weekly resistance) in confirmation, could trigger an attempt toward 1.2440 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). A minor support is eyed at 1.2200 (weekly ascending channel base), if broken could pull Cable to 1.2116 (minor 23.6% retrace) before 1.2080.
The AUDUSD found support at 0.7593 (major 61.8% retracement on Oct 13th to Oct 20th rise), and recovered above its 50, 200-hour moving averages in Sydney. Minor resistance is seen at 0.7640/0.7647 (100-hour moving average / major 38.2% retrace) before clearing the way toward 0.7680 (minor 23.6% retrace), then to 0.7730 mid-term resistance. Intra-day resistance is eyed at 0.7620/0.7593 (Fibonacci 50% and the major 61.8% retracement).
Gold gained 0.20% against the US dollar overnight. The precious metal remains offered below $1278, the 200-day moving average. The short-term support is eyed at $1255/ 1250 (major 38.2% retracement on Dec 16th to Jun 5th rise). Clearing $1278 should pave the way for a rise to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace).
The WTI slipped to $49.68, yet buyers quickly jumped in to rectify the price above $50/barrel. In the lack of a solid momentum, intra-day support is seen at $50.27 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Oct 24th fall), $49.50/49.00. On the upside, a move above $52.00/52.60 should clear the way to $53.00/55.00 mid-term resistance.