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USD stronger, Oil back to $50
The US dollar bounced after a few days of weakness, and gained territory against the majority of the G10 currencies. The EURUSD trades below the 1.1300 support (50-day moving average). If this resistance is surpassed, we could see a recovery to 1.1359 (Fibonacci retracement), then to 1.1415 (June 9th high).
First support level is seen at 1.1233 (100-day moving average), if broken could bring the pair to test the critical 1.1200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Japanese stock markets fell along with the commodities, the yen strengthened. Yesterday, the USDJPY recorded a new 1-month low at 106.25, getting dangerously closer to the critical support at 105.54 (May 2nd low). Below that support, the pair could fall to the 100 mark. First resistance is seen at 107.37 (Fibonacci retracement), if surpassed could encourage a surge to 108.83 (50-days-moving-average). A true recovery could be only considered above the 111.71 (major Fibonacci retracement).

The pound loosens for the 3rd session in a row against the US dollar, the GBPUSD is trading above the 1.4411 (major Fibonacci retracement), if broken could provoke an acceleration to the downside with the next support eyed at 1.4337 (50-day moving average). The first resistance is seen at 1.4469 (50-day moving average), and if this is surpassed, we expect a rise to 1.4548 (Fibonacci retracement). The volatility on British pound increased for a sixth week, reaching a fresh 7-year-high, as Brexit risks prevail less than two weeks away from the referendum.

The downside risks on the Aussie have weakened significantly following a former RBA tone. With a relatively light economic calendar next week, the focus will be on the USD leg and the Fed. The AUDUSD fell to 0.7402. The next support level is seen at 0.7326 (Fibonacci retracement), while the first resistance is eyed at 0.7430, where the 50-day moving average crossing below the 100-day average coils suggest a bearish reversal.

Gold consolidates gains at 1269. We could expect gold to move sideways at about the 1275 (Fibonacci retracement), ahead of next week's Fed meeting.

WTI retraced to 50$ a barrel due to a stronger US dollar, although the strong refinery demand and the supply disruption continued providing some support. The rebound in the US dollar has a negative impact on oil prices by making fuel imports, for countries using other currencies, more expensive.
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