Financial Market Research and Analysis

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USD strengthens ahead of FED
The weaknesses in the European economy highlighted by the European Central Bank (ECB) forecasts, pushed the euro lower against the US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve decision this week. EURUSD broke below the 1.1000 mark, with next support seen at 1.0940 (major Fibonacci retracement). If this level is cleared, we could see a further slump to 1.0782 (Fibonacci retracement).On the upside, surpassing the 1.1000 mark, could encourage a recovery to 1.1070 (Fibonacci retracement), then towards 1.1100/1.1120 (200-day moving average).

The USDJPY is moving above the106.00 mark on expectations of further monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan this week. The next resistance is eyed at 107.00/107.28 (100-day moving average), if surpassed, could push for a further rise to 107.58 (Fibonacci retracement), before 110.00/110.27 (Fibonacci retracement).
The first support is eyed at the 106.00 level, if broken, could cause a further slide to the 105.30 (50-day moving average), before 104.26 (Fibonacci retracement).

Released on Friday, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) report in the UK, including the period after the Brexit vote, showed a sensible contraction in both services and manufacturing industries. The GBPUSD weakened following the data. The pair is presently holding above the 1.3100 mark with the next support standing at 1.3064 (July 20th low). If cleared, the pair could fall below the 1.3000 mark, then towards the July 11th low at 1.2849. The first resistance is eyed at 1.3200, if surpassed, could encourage a further recovery to 1.3289 (July 22nd high). Above this level, the pair could rise to 1.3300, before another push to 1.3400/1.3415 (Fibonacci retracement).

Last week, the AUDUSD tested the 50-day moving average support at 0.7420, then bounced above the 0.7450. The bullish trend started mid-May is still in place, and we see the next resistance at 0.7500 level. Above, we could see a further rise to 0.7593/0.7600 (Fibonacci retracement). The first support is eyed at 0.7445 (major Fibonacci retracement), if broken, could give way to 0.7435 (50-day moving average). Below this level, the Aussie could plunge to 0.7342 (200-day moving average).

Stronger US dollar weighs on gold prices. Spot Gold is downbeat in London and if the price falls below the 1305 support (June 28th low), we could see a further slide to $1300/1297 (Fibonacci retracement) before $1290 (50-day moving average), then $1270 (100-day moving average). A recovery above $1338 (July 20th high) could encourage recovery to $1374 (July 11th high).’

Oil prices continue declining on the back of lower demand and a stronger US dollar ahead of the Federal reserve meeting due on July 27th. WTI traded below the $44.00 a barrel and the next support is seen at $43.72. Below that level, the oil prices could slump towards $40.00. On the upside, a rise above $44.00 could push for a re-test of 44.34 (intraday high). Above, WTI futures could surge to $44.60 (50-hour moving average) and towards $45.00/45.13 (100-hour moving average).

CFD trading is high risk and may not be suitable for everyone.