Financial Market Research and Analysis

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USD pares losses, GBP stabilises
The EURUSD rebounded from 1.1100 on Friday and stepped in the bullish consolidation zone. The 1.1160 level (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 30th to Oct 10th) should give support to further recovery toward 1.1216 (minor 76.4% retrace) and 1.1250. Intra-day resistance is seen at 1.1200 (200-hour moving average), while a fall below 1.1160 could encourage a further sell-off to 1.1138 (minor 23.6% retrace).

The downside correction in the USDJPY is expected to hit the major support at 102.60 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 27th to Oct 6th) for a renewed attempt to 104.20 before 104.50/105.00. Breaking below the 102.60, we could see a deeper correction to 102.25 (200-hour moving average), 102.12 (major 50%).

Following Friday’s flash crash, the GBPUSD is stabilized at 1.2386 – 1.2472 range in Asia. The recovery is underway. The 1.2295 (major 38.2% retracement on Sep 29th to Oct 7th crash) should lend support for a potential recovery above 1.2490 (50-hour moving average), 1.2618 (100-hour moving average), 1.2790 (200-hour moving average).

The AUDUSD continues its slow yet sustained journey south as the appetite in carry trades deteriorates. Trend and momentum indicators remain negative below 0.7612 (major 38.3% retracement on Sep 15th to Sep 29th rise) for a further slide toward 0.7552 (major 61.8% retrace) and 0.7515 (minor 76.4% retrace) is on the radar. Surpassing 0.7612, the AUDUSD should face sellers at 0.7632 (200-hour moving average), before 0.7650 (minor 23.6% retrace).

The selling pressure on gold remains intact below the 200-day moving average ($1274). Lack of appetite in the yellow metal, combined with a stronger US dollar, could pave the way toward $1210 (Fibonnaci 50% retracement on Dec 16th to Jun 5th rise). A successful recovery attempt above $1274, should encourage a rise to $1297 (minor 23.6% retrace).

WTI tests the $50/barrel level. The sentiment remains positive for a sustained recovery above the $50. The market remains buyer-in-dips above $48.90 (minor 23.6% retracement on Sep 20th to Oct 3rd rise) and $47.78 (major 38.2%).