Financial Market Research and Analysis

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USD loses pace, gold rebounds

The 1.1100/1.1120 trend-line (Dec 3rd low– March 1st low – May 29th low) is lending support to the EURUSD. The pair has bounced up to the 1.1150 and the next resistance is seen at 1.1200 (38.2% major Fibonacci retracement on December to April rise). If this level is surpassed, the EURUSD could even gain momentum toward the 1.1225 (100-day moving average) before a further rise to 1.1314 (50-day moving average).
A fall below the 1.1097 (May 30th low) could mean a continuation of the downtrend, which has started at the beginning of May, toward the critical 1.1070 level (50% Fibonacci retrace & 200 dma).
USDJPY is trading below the resistance at 111.29 (100-day moving average).Clearing this level should push the pair toward the next important level at 111.70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement on February to April decline). This would mean that the USDJPY would have fully recovered losses accumulated in April after the disappointing BoJ meeting decision. The market is not only pricing in a possible Fed interest rate hike in June, but also seems to reflect the chances of new quantitative easing measures ahead of the BoJ meeting on June 16th. First support is eyed at 110.36 (May 30th low), if broken could trigger a retrace to 109.35 (23.6% Fibonacci retrace).
Volatility is still the key word on GBPUSD, which in the month of May, has swung between 1.4768 (May 2nd top level) to 1.4331 (May 15th low) and back to 1.4600 in the last week. Cable continues testing the 200-day moving average at 1.4645, with more resistance seen at 1.4768 (May 2nd high) before a new projection towards 1.50 mark. First support is eyed at 1.4586 (May 30th low), if broken could send Cable back to 1.4547 (Fibonacci retrace).
AUDUSD bounced on the support at 0.7200 and is approaching the resistance at 0.7281 (200-day moving average). If that level is surpassed the pair could start a recovery toward the 0.7330 (50% Fibonacci retrace), and even to 0.7405 (100-day moving average). The first support is eyed at 0.7212/0.7200 area (61.8% Fibonacci retrace), and if that is broken, the pair could slump to 0.7121 (70.7% minor Fibonacci retrace), before 0.7064 (76.4% Fib retrace).
Australian Q1 GDP data due tomorrow is expected to be in line with the previous read, 0.6%.

After the 80$ depreciation since mid-May, Gold has reached an important support at 1205 (61.8% Fibonacci retrace). Currently, the precious metal has rebounded to 1212. If the 1200 support is broken, the price of gold could plunge to 1175 (50% Fib retrace). On the other hand, if gold starts appreciating, buyers could target a recovery to 1229 (70.7% Fib retrace) and even to 1243 (76.4% Fib retrace).
WTI consolidates above 49.00$ a barrel. Short-term supports are seen at 49.36 (100-hour moving average) and 49.27 (50-day moving average) while a more important level is 48.83 (200-hour moving average). First resistance level is seen at 49.73 (May 30th high), if this level is surpassed, we could have a new upside attempt above the 50$ mark and towards 50.18 resistance (May 26th high).