Financial Market Research and Analysis

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USD loses ground post-NFP
The EURUSD spiked to 1.1252 following the disappointing US labour data released on Friday. The softer US dollar should encourage a re-test of the 1.1215 (major 38.2% retracement on Aug 8th – Aug 31st decline) for a short-term bullish reversal to 1.1245 / 1.1252 (major 50% level / Friday top) before 1.1275/1.1300 area. Intermediate resistance is eyed at 1.1205 (200-hour moving average). On the downside, first support is given by 1.1150 (post-NFP retracement low) before 1.1122 (Aug 31st low).

The USDJPY is on its way toward the 100-hour moving average, 103.28, after having lost the USD-support. The pair is still considered in the positive trend above 102.71, the major 38.2% retracement on post-Jackson Hole rally. Yet a break below this level should hint at a renewed lack of appetite for the US dollar and could encourage a sell-off toward 102.20/102.15 (major 50% / 200-hour moving average).

The weak US data has benefited the GBPUSD. Cable extended gains to 1.3352 and is gathering enough momentum to grasp additional territory toward 1.3500 (psychological resistance) and 1.3640 (major 38.2% retracement on post-Brexit sell-off, mid-term resistance to the post-Brexit bearish trend). Intraday support is seen at 1.3282 (minor 23.6% retracement on Aug 29th – Sep 2nd advance) and 1.3240 (major 38.2% retrace).

The positive momentum in the AUDUSD accelerated on the back of a weaker US dollar. The short-term trend turned bullish as the pair cleared 0.7588, the major 38.2% retracement on Aug 16th – Aug 31st decline. The carry appetite is somewhat better, yet the upside is expected to remain timid before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting due tomorrow. Intraday resistances are eyed at 0.7615 / 0.7618 (post-NFP high / 50% retrace on Aug 16th – Aug 31st decline) before 0.7650 (major 61.8%). The 200-hour moving average, 0.7570, should provide the first support. More dip buyers are eyed at 0.7550 (minor 23.6%) and 0.7540 (100-hour moving average.

Gold gained past $25 on the back of a cheaper US dollar. There is room for further recovery toward the 50-day moving average, $1337, given that the fading expectations of a September Fed rate hike moderate the opportunity cost of holding gold. The $1302 / 1297 (100-day moving average / minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise) is seen as a solid mid-term support.’

The barrel of WTI stabilised at $44 in Asia. We turn neutral from negative. Resistance is eyed at $45.45, the major 38.2% retrace on Aug 19th – Aug 31st drop, if cleared should encourage a further recovery toward $46.10 / 46.20 (200-hour moving average /Fibonacci 50%). On the downside, the softer IUS dollar suggests a slower pullback. Support is eyed at $42.85 / $42.50, before $41.80.

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