Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD is testing 1.1121, the minor 76.4% retracement on Aug 5th – Aug 18th rise. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative with a possibility of a further drop towards 1.1045 (August lows) before the 1.10 handle. Intraday resistances could be found at 1.1245 (100-hour moving average) and 1.1280 (200-hour moving average).’

Higher US yields and expectations of a new monetary stimulus in Japan should keep the bias on the upside. There is room for a further recovery toward 105.00 / 107.45 area, should the pair hold support at 101.51, the major 38.2% retracement post-Yellen speech.

The GBPUSD sees resistance pre-1.3120, the major 38.2% retrace on August rise. With a stronger US dollar, we could expect a viable mid-term downside correction in Cable. The 1.3147 – 1.3167 (200 and 100 hour moving averages respectively) are good candidates for a solid intraday resistance. The critical support stands at 1.3000, then at 1.2865 (Aug 15 top).’

The Aussie’s upside correction remained capped at 0.7580, the minor 23.6 retracement on Aug 10th – Aug 29th decline. The carry traders are gradually leaving the pair as the US yields appear appetising after the Jackson Hole symposium revived the expectations of a Fed rate hike before the end of the year. The support is expected to come into play at 0.7525/0.7500, if broken, the AUDUSD could easily re-test the July support zone of 0.7440/0.7420.’

Gold had a quiet session. With a stronger US dollar, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, and should gradually encourage macro managers to diminish their exposure to the precious metal. Breaking below the $1310 (July support) could accelerate a further sell-off toward the $1300 / 1297 (minor 23.6% retracement on Dec’15 – Jul’16 rise & 100-day moving average).

Stronger US dollar continues weighing on the barrel of WTI. Below $47.52, the major 38.2% retrace on Aug 19th – Aug 25th drop, the WTI is expected to continue its journey south toward the $45 level depending on the intensity of expectations vis-à-vis OPEC’s September meeting.’