Financial Market Research and Analysis

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US dollar gains, gold hits $1212
The EURUSD hit 1.0773 for the first time in more than nine months. The oversold conditions hint at minor upside corrections, yet traders are expected to remain sellers on rallies for a re-test of 1.0710 (Jan 4th low), and 1.0524 (Dec 2rd, 2116 low). The intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0897 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 14th sell-off), 1.0974 (major 38.2%), before 1.1035 (50% level), max 1.1065 (50-day moving averages).

The USJPY legged up to 107.65 on broad based USD demand. The spectacular rise in US yields should keep the cash flowing into the US dollar against the yen for a further attempt to 108.00/108.50 area. Large option expiries at 105.00 should keep the tone positive at today’s session. Intermediate supports are eyed at 106.14 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 14th rally), before the distant 105.18/105.20 (200-day moving average / major 38.2% retracement).

The GBPUSD eased 0.30% in Asia, after extending gains to 1.2673, pre-Oct 7th flash crash levels. The daily MACD stepped in the bullish zone, suggesting that a further recovery could take the pair up to 1.2840 (100-day moving average), before the critical 1.3040 (major 38.2% retracement on Jun 23rd to Oct 7th sell-off). Buyers are expected to join the positive trend at dips into 1.2480 (100-hour moving average), 1.2440 (2-hour moving average) and 1.2352 (weekly support).

The AUDUSD extended losses to 0.7563, as the rising US yields dent the appetite in carry trades. The trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative for a further slide toward 0.7440/0.7420, mid-term resistance zone. Offers are eyed at 0.7583 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 8th to Nov 14th decline) and 0.7620 (major 38.2% retrace), if surpassed should suggest a short-term bullish reversal.

Gold fell to $1212, a touch higher from our $1210 mid-term target. High US, and global bond yields keep investors focused on interest rate instruments rather than the yellow metal. The next key support is eyed at $1200 level, before considering a further slide to $1180. Offers are eyed at $1231 (Nov 14th resistance), before $1243 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 14th sell-off).

The appetite in WTI remained limited after Iran boosted its output, reviving fears that the OPEC members may fail to agree on cutting the production by the end of this month. The bias remains on the downside for a further slide to $42.90/$42.50 per barrel. Offers are eyed at $44.50 (200-day moving average) and 44.25 (200-hour moving average).

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