Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD reversed gains and is ready to test the 200-day moving average as the US dollar picked up steam after a satisfactory ADP read yesterday. Below 1.1125 (major 38.2% retracement on July 25 – Aug 2 rise), we could see a further fall to 1.1010 (Fibonacci 50). A recovery above 1.1198/1.1200 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) could attract new buyers, and encourage the pair to 1.1222 (100-day moving average).

USDJPY traded above 101.50, with the next resistance eyed at 102.00 before 102.82. Above this resistance, the USDJPY could recover to 104.26 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement on January to June decline). A break below 100.67 (August 2nd low) could drag the USDJPY down toward 100.00, then lower to 98.99 (June 24th low).

Super Thursday matters. We are prepared for two-sided volatility given the heavily short GBP market. The pound-dollar is considered in a negative trend below 1.3640, the major 38.2% retracement on the post-Brexit sell-off. Although the sellers lacked momentum to drive the pound below the 1.30 psychological support against the US dollar, the 1.28 – 1.25 area is still on the radar.

The Aussie rose against the US dollar on Thursday. The trend in AUDUSD remains bullish and clearing the 0.7637/0.7675 (August 2ndand July 15thhigh) resistance, we could expect a further rise to 0.7800/0.7834 (April 21st top level). Aussie dropping below the 0.7570 (August 3rd low), could be the start of a further slide to the lower support 0.7470 (100-day moving average), before the critical 0.7356 level (200-day moving average).

Gold prices retraced to $1350 on the back of a stronger US dollar, Asian markets rising, and expectations of the Bank of England introducing further easing measures in the UK to help the economy. Surpassing $1366 and the close $1374 resistance (July 11th top level), we expect it to rally towards the $1400/1500 mark. The first support is seen at $1310 (50-day moving average), and if that level is broken to the downside, the precious metal could slump below the $1300 mark to $1278 (100-day moving average).

Despite oil inventories increasing by 1.4M, the EIA weekly report showed gasoline inventories declined the most. This provided a new boost to oil prices, with WTI surpassing to $41.00 then retracing to $40.70 a barrel. The trend remains bearish, due to the global glut concerns, but the 100-hour moving average at $40.55 could provide a support for the recovery. Below this level WTI could slump, testing $40 a barrel, and even the 39.25 bottom level.
WTI prices climbing above $41.38 (August 3rd high), could be supported by increased bids, pushing the price up to $41.65 (200-hour moving average), then towards 42.45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement on July to August dip).