Financial Market Research and Analysis

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Risk appetite wanes into the US election
The EURUSD traded rangebound, a touch above the 1.1030 (major 38.2% retracement on Oct 25th to Nov 4th rise). The US presidential election should trigger two-sided volatility later in the session. Technical supports are eyed at 1.1020 (200-hour moving average), 1.0996 (Fib 50% level), 1.0961 (major 61.8% retrace), before 1.0919 (minor 76.4% retrace) and 1.0850 (Oct 25th low). On the upside, a break through the 1.1140-resistance could encourage a further rise to 1.1195 (200-day moving average).

The appetite in the yen could surge heading into the US election results. A mean reversion pattern on hourly basis is expected to bring the USDJPY down to 104.20 (200-hour moving average), then to 103.58 (100-hour moving average), before 102.85 (100-day moving average). Solid offers are eyed pre-105.00 and 105.32 (200-day moving average). A potential Clinton victory could trigger a relief rally and clear offers above this level.

The GBPUSD hovers around the 1.24 level. The pair could make a timid upside attempt to 1.2560, before 1.2615/1.2622 (50-day moving average / pre-Oct 7th flash crash high), heading into the US election results. Nevertheless a potential relief rally in the US dollar could halt Cable’s recovery and pressure the pair toward 1.2080, mid-term support. Intermediate supports are eyed at 1.2375 (major 38.2% retrace on Oct 25th to Nov 4th recovery), before 1.2319 (Fib 50% level), 1.2263 (major 61.8% retrace) and 1.2193 (minor 76.4% retrace).

The AUDUSD failed to break the 0.7730-resistance at the second attempt in a month. Solid offers are seen at 0.7730, while stops are eyed above. With deteriorating risk appetite pre-US election, we could expect the AUDUSD revert back to 0.7675 (100-hour moving average), 0.7645 (200-hour moving average), before 0.7600 (100-day moving average), max 0.7536 (200-day moving average).

Gold is better bid as some investors prefer staying parked in the precious metal before the US election results. The key support is eyed at $1280 (major 200-day moving average) for a potential recovery to $1300, before $1317 (100-day moving average). A Clinton-win could take away the $1280 support and trigger a sell-off toward $1260, before $1250 (major 38.2% retrace on Dec’15 to pr’16 rise).

The WTI trades close to $50/barrel, as the market remains skeptical on OPEC’s ability to seal a deal at next week’s meeting. The bias remains on the downside, for an extension of the weakness toward $44.25 (200-day moving average) before $43 (Sep 19th dip). Offers are eyed at $45.80 (minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Nov 4th fall) and $47.02 (major 38.2% retrace).

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