Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD consolidates at 1.1340 ahead of Fed Governor Yellen speech which, if dovish, could cause a new surge above the 1.1350/1.1400. The critical support is the 1.1200 mark, the rising trend-line (from December 3rd).

Asian stock markets traded in positive territory for a second day (Nikkei +1.28%, Hang Seng +0.78%, ASX +0.34%). The USDJPY attracted buyers at 103.57. The next resistance is seen at 104.83 (June 20th high). This have been the longest bullish trend for the Yen under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Three days ahead of the Brexit referendum, the ‘leave’ and ‘remain’ sides are virtually neck-and-neck. The GBPUSD accumulated gains surpassing the 1.4700 mark, while traders seem to take position in favour of the ‘Remain’ camp. A further surge above the 1.4768 resistance (May 2nd high) could provoke a rally towards the 1.50 mark. According to businessman George Soros, in case of a Brexit event, the pound could slump by 15/20%.

The recent surge in commodity prices and the weakness of the US dollar continue encouraging the AUDUSD higher. The Aussie extended gains against the US dollar moving towards the 0.7500 mark. The next resistance is eyed at 0.7595/0.7600 mark (pre-RBA interest rate cut levels). A fall below the 0.7300/0.7290 (200-day moving average) could cause a bearish inversion with next target seen at 0.7060 (Fibonacci retracement).

Gold consolidates between 1275 and 1300 levels. The yellow metal traded lower for a second session due to a better appetite in Asian stock markets. Any dovishness from the Fed Governor Yellen could give a fresh boost to buyers.

Oil slid in Asia, after a strong rally that was alimented by fading expectation of a Brexit event for the UK. On the flip side, we have supply issues in focus: Saudi Arabia’s crude exports dropped despite the high production. WTI trades at 49.65$ a barrel, while Brent hold the 50.22$ a barrel.