Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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Oil rallies as downside risks prevail
The volatility in the EURUSD has weakened as the pair consolidated weakness a touch above the 1.0710, Jan 4th low. Trend and momentum indicators remain comfortably negative for a successful re-test of this level, before extending the downtrend toward 1.0524 (Dec 2rd, 2116 low). The intra-day resistances are eyed at 1.0810 (100-hour moving average), 1.0848 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 14th sell-off), 1.0934 (major 38.2% & 200-hour moving average).

The USJPY continues its journey north. A further yen depreciation could be expected with next critical target set at 110.00 level. Option positions are mixed between 108.50-109.50, supportive at 106.00 and above at today’s expiry. Intra-day supports are eyed at 107.40 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 15th rise & 100-hour moving average), before 106.21 (major 38.2% retracement), max 105.15 (200-day moving average).

The GBPUSD retreated to 1.2379 and is expected to extend weakness to 1.2350 for weekly head-and-shoulders formation following Nov 11th peak at 1.2673. The daily MACD remains flat as trading volumes decline. Offers are touted above the 50-day moving average (1.2520). Light option offers stand at 1.2635. A break below 1.2350 should send the pair under one-month ascending channel base and signal a further bearish consolidation.

The AUDUSD remains under the globally improved yields’ pressure. Sellers are touted at 0.7517 and above (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 8th to Nov 15th decline & 100-hour moving average), for a further extension of weakness toward 0.7440/0.7420 mid-term resistance. Decent option expiries trail above 0.7585 at today’s expiry and should keep any upside attempt limited through the day.

Gold oscillates around $1230. Large option expiry at $1250 could dent the upside momentum today, delaying a further recovery to $1241 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 14th sell-off). Key support is presumed at $1223 (50-hour moving average) before $1210/1200.

The WTI took a lift to $46.65 amid Saudi and Russian ministers' pre-OPEC meeting revived hopes for action in Vienna. Nevertheless, the picture is getting more complicated with US protectionism, talks of possible reprise of sanctions against Iran, and a higher US production to rely less on OPEC production under Trump’s rule. All these factors are negative for the oil recovery. The US crude inventories data is due today. A larger than expected increase could dent the current appetite. Intra-day supports are eyed at $45.00/$44.90/$44.80, area including the minor 23.6% retracement on Oct 19th to Nov 9th fall, 200 and 100-hour moving average respectively. On the upside, resistance is eyed at 47.50 (50% level), before $48.60 (major 61.8% retrace).

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