Financial Market Research and Analysis

Our analysts have their fingers on the pulse of the world's financial market news.

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Oil bounces, risk-on returns
After a long challenging week for the markets, today traders are switching risk-on. The global stock markets are gaining slightly after the losses over the last few days.

This week, after a busy economic calendar, EURUSD has been able to hold above the 1.1250. The 50-day moving average has been a challenging resistance for the pair and, if that is surpassed, we can expect a rise to 1.1359 (Fibonacci retracement), which could be the start of a new rally up to 1.1500 / 1.1600. Below the critical support is 1.1200/1.1180, the mid-term trend could turn bearish with the next support seen at 1.1068 (200-day moving average).

Overnight, Asian markets have seen a recovery into their stock prices, with Nikkei gaining 1.07% and Hang Seng advancing 0.66%, the USDJPY bounced up to 104.24, but in order to start talking about a short term recovery, we need the pair to surpass the first resistance level at 105.60 (minor Fibonacci retracement), but most importantly the 107.81 (Fibonacci retracement) right below the 50-day moving average. If the yen gains more strength we might see a break of the 103.54 support and a slump towards the 100.00 mark mid-term support.

Sterling trading has been driven by several conflicting news this week, and the moves in the markets are quiet a good benchmark of the uncertainty about next week’s Brexit vote. After the tragic death of UK PM Jo Cox, both Cameron and Farage decided to suspend their campaign, and the market is appreciating this decision in favour of the Sterling. GBPUSD rose to 1.4246 , with next critical support at 1.4300/1.4330 (100-day moving average), which if surpassed could provide a new support for a further upside towards 1.4400 and 1.4500 mark.

AUDUSD moves on the side-lines, despite the risk on approach. Falling Gold prices and the weakening US dollar are balancing each other out, but the 0.7330 support (Fibonacci retracement) looks solid. If this gets broken the next support is 0.7290 (200-day moving average) before a fall to 0.7210 (major Fibonacci retrace). Above the critical 0.7446 (major Fibonacci retrace) we expect an extension towards 0.7590/0.7600.

The first drop in 7 sessions for Gold, which slides to 1285$/oz after a rally that brought the precious metal to nearly a two year high. The first support is at 1253 (Fibonacci retracement), and below this level the prices could slump to 1213 (major Fibonacci retracement). Looking at the upside, Gold traders could be waiting for the UK referendum, and if a Brexit happens, we expect bids to push towards 1350/1400 mark.

Oil prices rose after seven days of declines, and the volatility is seen to increase as we approach the vote UK on the 23rd of June. WTI rose almost 1 dollar right below the 47.00$ a barrel, compared to the -3.8% of the previous session. First support is seen at 45.80 (intraday low), and if this gets broken might push WTI towards the 40.00 mark. The first resistance is the 50$ a barrel, before the 51.64 top level (June the 9th high).