Financial market research and analysis

EURUSD opened the week slightly lower. Following the break of 1.12 support the short-term critical level of 1.1160 (Fib 38.2% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb11 rise) will likely come under pressure. Above 1.1160, the possibility of an extension toward 1.15 will remain on cards. A break below 1.1160 should signal a short-term bearish reversal and could pull the pair down to 1.1093 (Fib 50%) before 1.1055 (200-day moving average).
Due to testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels at 2pm, Mario Draghi may well be a short term catalyst for more weakness in the single currency.

The worse-than-expected contraction in Japanese 4Q GDP revived the BoJ doves and sent the USDJPY higher to 114.10 in Tokyo. PM Abe said to consider additional measures in order to curb the undesired volatility in the yen, and perhaps the undesired appreciation also. The 115.08 (Fib 38.2% retrace off Jan 29 high 121.69) is important. Only a break above this level is expected to gather enough momentum for further recovery towards 118.00/120.00 area. Intermediate resistances are eyed at 116.34 and 117.60 (Fib 50% and 61.8% retrace). Mixed option expiries at around 115.00 for today.

GBPUSD started the week better bid. The 1.4486/1.4503 (area including the 50, 100 and 200hma) should hold to consider a re-test of last week highs. The 1.4590 (pivot) could be a solid intraday resistance from those looking to sell the rallies for a setback to 1.4470 (38.2% retrace on Jan 29 – Feb 4th rise) and 1.4354 (minor 23.6% on mid-term Fibonacci retracement). A break above 1.4590 could encourage the bulls for an extension toward 1.4660 (Fib 50%).

AUDUSD is better bid despite the gloomy Chinese data. Given the fragile fundamentals, gains could be fragile. Solid resistance is eyed at 0.7165/0.7180 (pivot / minor 76.4% retrace on Feb 4 -9 decline).
Near-term support is in the 0.7016-30 area marked by the November 10 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this barrier opens the door for a challenge of the 0.6947-64 zone (horizontal pivot, 50% level).

Gold is aggressively sold this Monday and the selling pressure places the $1200 in danger. The short-term critical support is eyed at $1180 (major 38.2% retracement on Dec’15 – Feb’16 rally). Below this level, the short-term bearish reversal could encourage further sell-off to $1155 (Fib 50%), before $1130 (200-day moving average).

WTI is testing offers at $30. Intraday momentum is positive and could enhance appetite for a recovery to $32 (4-month downtrend channel top). More resistance is eyed at $34.50/35.00 mid-term resistance. Failure to break above $32 should keep the WTI within the down-trending channel, paving the way toward $25.